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MUNICIPAL BOND PRICING TEACHING DASHBOARD — ILLUSTRATIVE $1,000,000,000 GENERAL OBLIGATION SERIES 20XX

Comprehensive Reference for MMD, Spreads, Premium Mathematics, and Treasurer's Pricing Day Protocol — v1.1 (with Multi-Curve Tab)
Issuer: Sample Issuer Par: $1,000,000,000 Coupon: 5.00% Premium: $66,512,112 Scale Date: 4/23/2026 Source: the underwriter

DEAL OVERVIEW & DASHBOARD PURPOSE

PURPOSE OF THIS DASHBOARD

This is a comprehensive teaching reference covering the complete bond pricing process for the proposed the Issuer $1,000,000,000 General Obligation Series 20XX. It explains every component of how municipal bonds are priced, how the Municipal Market Data (MMD) curve drives the entire process, and how the Treasurer or Finance Director can fulfill her fiduciary responsibility during pricing day.

THE DEAL AT A GLANCE

Total Par Amount
$1,000,000,000
30-year level debt service amortization
Total Net Premium
$66,512,112
6.65% of par
Total Bond Proceeds
$1,066,512,112
Cash delivered to County at closing
Weighted Avg Price
106.6512
Per $100 par across all maturities
Total Debt Service
$1,974,001,233
Total payments over 30-year life
Total Interest Cost
$4,870,006,167
Total interest paid (par + interest = total DS)
Premium DV01
$789,881
Premium change per 1 bp MMD shift
First Principal
FYE 2030
After 6-year capitalized interest period

STRUCTURAL FACTS

WHY THIS DASHBOARD EXISTS

Most public officials are presented with an underwriter's pricing scale and asked to approve it. They have no way to verify whether the proposed yields are fair, whether the spreads to MMD are reasonable, or whether tens of millions of dollars are being left on the table.

This dashboard is designed to change that. By the time you finish reviewing all 12 tabs, you will:

THE BOTTOM LINE FOR MUNICIPAL

On a $1 billion deal with a Premium DV01 of approximately $789,881 per basis point, every basis point of negotiated tightening is worth real money to taxpayers. A well-prepared Treasurer who tightens the curve by just 5 bps captures roughly $3.95 million of additional premium proceeds. A 10 bp improvement is worth $7.9 million. This dashboard exists to make that capture possible.

MMD FOUNDATIONS - WHAT IS THE MUNICIPAL MARKET DATA CURVE?

DEFINITION

MMD stands for Municipal Market Data, a proprietary yield curve published daily by Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters) at approximately 3:00 PM Eastern. It serves as the benchmark "risk-free" rate for the tax-exempt municipal bond market - the equivalent of the Treasury curve for taxable bonds.

FORMAL DEFINITION

The MMD AAA scale is a theoretical curve showing the yield at which a hypothetical AAA-rated, non-callable, tax-exempt General Obligation bond would trade at each maturity from 1 to 30 years. Every other municipal bond is priced as a spread (typically positive) to this benchmark.

WHO PUBLISHES IT

ProviderProductAccess
Refinitiv (LSEG)MMD via TM3 (The Municipal Market Monitor)Subscription, ~$5K-$15K annually for institutional
ICE Data ServicesICE AAA Yield CurveSubscription
S&P GlobalMunicipal Market Intelligence CurveSubscription
BloombergBVAL AAA CurveBloomberg Terminal
TradewebAiPrice AAA Municipal Yield CurveSubscription/free tier

Different providers can show slightly different yields (typically within 2-5 bps) because they use different methodologies, but MMD remains the most widely cited benchmark in the negotiated underwriting market.

WHY MMD MATTERS - THE PRICING ANCHOR

Every yield in every municipal bond pricing scale is built from MMD. The pricing equation is universal:

YIELD = MMD + SPREAD TO MMD

This means that to evaluate any proposed yield, you need TWO pieces of information:

  1. The MMD value for that maturity - which the Issuer's representative must verify independently
  2. Whether the spread is reasonable - which requires comparison against recent comparable issues

THE SAMPLE 4/23/2026 MMD CURVE

This is the curve embedded in the the Issuer $1B Series 20XX pricing scale. These values should be checked against the prior day's actual Refinitiv MMD print on pricing day.

YearFYEMMDYearFYEMMD
120302.37%1620453.40%
220312.34%1720463.50%
320322.36%1820473.63%
420332.44%1920483.76%
520342.52%2020493.89%
620352.62%2120504.01%
720362.66%2220514.09%
820372.74%2320524.12%
920382.84%2420534.14%
1020392.95%2520544.17%
1120403.02%3020594.27%
1220413.09%
1320423.20%
1420433.24%
1520443.32%

HOW MMD MOVES

MMD moves daily based on:

CRITICAL POINT - MMD IS NOT NEGOTIABLE

MMD is what it is on any given day. Neither the Issuer nor the underwriter can negotiate the MMD value. What CAN be negotiated is the SPREAD TO MMD. This is why understanding MMD is the FIRST step in pricing - you cannot evaluate spreads without knowing the benchmark.

HISTORICAL MMD CONTEXT - WHERE WE ARE IN 2026

The 4/23/2026 MMD curve reflects a specific market environment:

THE PRICING EQUATION - HOW YIELDS BECOME PRICES BECOME PREMIUM

THE CHAIN OF CALCULATION

Every dollar of premium in this $1 billion deal flows through a six-step chain. Understanding this chain is the foundation for everything else in this dashboard.

STEP 1: MMD CURVE (Refinitiv publishes daily, 3 PM Eastern) | v STEP 2: SPREAD TO MMD (assigned by underwriter based on credit, structure, demand) | v STEP 3: YIELD = MMD + SPREAD | v STEP 4: PRICE (computed from yield via bond pricing formula) | v STEP 5: PREMIUM PER $100 = PRICE - 100 | v STEP 6: TOTAL PREMIUM = PAR AMOUNT * (PRICE - 100) / 100

THE BOND PRICING FORMULA - STEP 4 IN DETAIL

The standard semi-annual municipal bond pricing formula is:

PRICE = C * [1 - (1+y)^-n] / y + 100 / (1+y)^n |--PV of coupon stream--| |--PV of principal--| Where: C = semi-annual coupon = (Coupon Rate / 2) * $100 = $2.50 (for 5% coupon) y = semi-annual yield = Yield Rate / 2 n = number of semi-annual periods to maturity (or to call)

WORKED EXAMPLE - FYE 2030 ($18,585,000 par, 1 year, 2.52% yield)

INPUTS: Coupon Rate = 5.00% (annual) Yield Rate = 2.52% (annual) = MMD 2.37% + Spread 15 bps Years to Mat = 1 Periods n = 2 (semi-annual) C = $2.50 per $100 par y = 0.0126 (1.26% per semi-annual period)
STEP 1 - PV OF COUPON STREAM: (1 + 0.0126)^-2 = 0.97526840 1 - 0.97526840 = 0.02473160 Annuity Factor = 0.02473160 / 0.0126 = 1.962825 PV_coupons = $2.50 * 1.962825 = $4.9071
STEP 2 - PV OF PRINCIPAL: PV_principal = $100 * 0.97526840 = $97.5268
STEP 3 - PRICE PER $100: Price = $4.9071 + $97.5268 = $102.4339 Price expressed = 102.4339% of par
STEP 4 - PREMIUM: Premium per $100 = 102.4339 - 100 = 2.4339 Premium $ = $18,585,000 * 0.024339 = $452,340.92 Proceeds = $18,585,000 + $452,340.92 = $19,037,340.92

WORKED EXAMPLE - FYE 2039 ($118,090,000 par, 10 years, 3.30% yield - PEAK PRICE)

INPUTS: Yield Rate = 3.30% = MMD 2.95% + Spread 35 bps Years to Mat = 10 Periods n = 20 y = 0.01650
CALCULATION: (1 + 0.01650)^-20 = 0.72086235 Annuity Factor = (1 - 0.72086235) / 0.01650 = 16.917434 PV_coupons = $2.50 * 16.917434 = $42.2936 PV_principal = $100 * 0.72086235 = $72.0862 PRICE = $42.2936 + $72.0862 = $114.3798 Premium per $100 = 14.3798 Premium $ = $118,090,000 * 0.143798 = $16,981,127.75
WHY 2039 HAS THE HIGHEST PRICE

The 2039 maturity peaks at 114.38 because it captures the full 247-basis-point spread between the 5.00% coupon and the 3.30% yield over 10 years, with no offsetting call risk (this maturity is priced to maturity, not to the 2039 call date). After 2039, all longer maturities are priced to the 10-year call, capping their upside.

PRICED-TO-CALL CONVENTION

For premium bonds (yield below coupon), the standard market convention is to price to the earliest economic call date rather than to maturity. Why? Because rational issuers will call high-coupon bonds and refund them when yields drop sufficiently. Investors price in this expectation.

MaturityPricing ConventionYears Used in Formula
FYE 2030 - 2039Priced to Maturity1 to 10 years (actual life)
FYE 2040 - 2059Priced to 2039 Call10 years (call life)

This is why the price column in the year-by-year table peaks at 2039 (114.38) and then declines monotonically as longer-dated bonds with rising yields are all squeezed into the same 10-year call horizon.

THE COMPLETE FORMULA CHAIN VISUALIZED

Refinitiv MMD Desk publishes daily AAA muni curve | v MMD(t) = benchmark yield at maturity t | (+) Spread to MMD assigned by underwriter based on credit, structure, demand | v YIELD(t) = MMD(t) + Spread(t) | v Bond Pricing Formula (semi-annual, 30/360): | Price = (Coupon/2 * $100) * [1 - (1+y/2)^-2n] / (y/2) + $100 / (1+y/2)^2n | v Premium per $100 = Price - 100 | v PREMIUM $ = Par * (Price - 100) / 100

YEAR-BY-YEAR PREMIUM MATHEMATICS

COMPLETE 30-MATURITY CALCULATION TABLE

This table shows every component of the bond pricing formula for all 30 maturities of the $1 billion deal. The columns let you see exactly how MMD + Spread becomes a Yield, which becomes a Price, which becomes Premium dollars.

FYE Par Amount MMD + Spread (bps) = Yield Price To Yrs (n) (1+y/2)^-2n PV Coupons PV Principal PRICE Premium % Premium $ Proceeds $
TOTAL

SUMMARY METRICS

Priced to Maturity (2030-2039)
$899,935,000
Par - Premium $100,736,879 (11.19%)
Priced to Call (2040-2059)
$4,100,065,000
Par - Premium $231,823,683 (5.65%)
Highest Price Maturity
FYE 2039
114.3798 - last bond priced to maturity
Largest $ Premium
FYE 2039
$16,981,128 single maturity

PRICE CURVE VISUALIZATION

PREMIUM DOLLAR CONTRIBUTION BY MATURITY

FLAGGED ANOMALY - FYE 2035

Notice that FYE 2035 (Year 6) shows a Spread to MMD of only 3 basis points, breaking the otherwise smooth curve. This is highlighted in red in the table above. See Tab 8 (Anomaly Detector) for full analysis of this scale kink and its implications.

SPREAD COMPONENTS - DECOMPOSING THE 15 TO 42 BPS

WHY THE SPREAD EXISTS

The Spread to MMD compensates investors for everything that makes a specific bond different from the hypothetical AAA-non-callable benchmark. For the Issuer's $1 billion Series 20XX, the spread ranges from 15 bps at year 1 to 42 bps at year 30. Here is how that builds up.

THE SIX COMPONENTS OF SPREAD

Risk Factor Effect on Spread Why
Credit Quality ~0 bps the Issuer is Aaa/AAA - same as the MMD benchmark. No credit penalty applied.
Callable Feature (10-year par call) +5 to +15 bps Investors give up upside if yields fall and bonds get called. Wider for premium-coupon bonds.
Issue Size ($1B) +10 to +20 bps Extremely large issue requires market absorption capacity. Bigger deals trade wider.
Use of Proceeds (Jail/Correctional) +5 to +15 bps ESG-screened sector. Some funds cannot buy these bonds, shrinking buyer base.
State-Specific Risk +0 to +10 bps Texas-specific concerns (property tax cap politics, jurisdiction uncertainty).
Liquidity Premium +0 to +25 bps (widens with maturity) Longer-dated bonds trade less frequently in secondary; investors demand compensation.

HOW THESE STACK ACROSS THE CURVE

Maturity Total Spread Approximate Decomposition
FYE 2030 (Year 1) 15 bps Issue Size +10, Use of Proceeds +5 (no call risk for 1-yr; minimal liquidity)
FYE 2034 (Year 5) 23 bps Issue Size +12, Use +5, Liquidity +3, Slight call premium +3
FYE 2039 (Year 10) 35 bps Issue Size +15, Use +8, Liquidity +5, Call risk +7
FYE 2049 (Year 20) 37 bps Issue Size +15, Use +10, Liquidity +12, full call premium baked in
FYE 2059 (Year 30) 42 bps Issue Size +15, Use +10, Liquidity +17 - longest tenor commands highest liquidity premium
DIRECTION OF SPREAD COMPONENTS

For the Issuer's deal, every spread component is POSITIVE (widens the spread). Negative spreads (yields below MMD) are mathematically possible but rare - typically only seen for state-specific double-tax-exempt bonds bought by in-state residents, pre-refunded escrowed-to-maturity bonds, or scarcity-driven specialty credits.

WHAT CAN THE COUNTY ACTUALLY NEGOTIATE?

Some spread components are essentially fixed; others are negotiable:

Component Negotiable? How to Reduce
Credit Quality NO - reflects Moody's/S&P/Fitch ratings Long-term: maintain financial strength, transparency, communication
Call Feature YES - structural Shorter call (7-yr instead of 10-yr) tightens spread but reduces refunding flexibility
Issue Size YES - structural Bifurcate into multiple series; spread issuance over time; tighter spreads on smaller pieces
Use of Proceeds YES - framing Designate ESG/social/green tranches where eligible; separate diversion programs
State-Specific Risk NO - market-level Cannot change Texas politics; can address through disclosure transparency
Liquidity Premium PARTIAL Issue benchmark sizes ($25M+ per maturity); maintain post-issuance market presence

THE NEGOTIATING REALITY

When the underwriter presents a proposed spread, the Treasurer's job is to ask:

  1. Is each component reasonable? Compare against recent comparable issues.
  2. Is the total spread justified? Sum of parts should equal total.
  3. Where is there room to tighten? Issue size and use-of-proceeds offer most leverage.
  4. What would a competing underwriter say? Even in negotiated sales, mention that bids exist.
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SPREAD NEGOTIATION

At a Premium DV01 of $0.79M per basis point on this $1B deal, every basis point of spread tightening is worth real money:

MMD VALIDATION — SAMPLE SCALE vs ACTUAL MARKET DATA (4/23/2026)

VALIDATION OBJECTIVE

Before accepting any pricing scale, the Issuer's representative should verify that the MMD column matches the actual published curve from Refinitiv. Since direct access to Refinitiv MMD requires a subscription, we validate MMD against four independent market data sources from the same date.

VALIDATION 1 - SAME-DAY AAA NEW ISSUE COMPARABLE

On 4/23/2026, Round Rock, Texas (AAA-rated) sold $100 million of GO bonds via competitive bid to JPMorgan. As a same-day, same-state, same-rating comparable, the implied MMD spreads provide a strong cross-check.

Tenor MMD Round Rock Yield Round Rock Spread Sample Issuer Spread Result
1 year 2.37% 2.52% (8/2027) +15 bps +15 bps PASS
5 year 2.52% 2.67% (2031) +15 bps +23 bps PASS - DC slightly wider
10 year 2.95% 3.14% (2036) +19 bps +35 bps PASS - DC wider for size
15 year 3.32% 3.54% (2041) +22 bps +37 bps PASS - DC wider for size

Interpretation: Round Rock is a relatively small ($100M) routine issuer, so its 15-22 bp spread reflects baseline AAA Texas pricing. the Issuer's wider spreads (15-37 bps) appropriately reflect the $1B size penalty, ESG screen for sensitive use of proceeds, and 30-year structure. The MMD column is consistent across the two issues.

VALIDATION 2 - SAME-DAY Aa2 NEW ISSUE COMPARABLE

On the same day, Morgan Stanley priced UMass Building Authority (Aa2/AA-/AA/) at $564 million.

Tenor MMD UMass Yield Spread to MMD Result
1 year (11/2026) 2.37% 2.50% +13 bps CONSISTENT
5 year (2031) 2.52% 2.72% +20 bps CONSISTENT
10 year (2036) 2.95% 3.08% +13 bps CONSISTENT
15 year (2041) 3.32% 3.49% +17 bps CONSISTENT

Interpretation: UMass spreads are tighter than expected for an Aa2 credit, but they cluster around the MMD curve in a consistent pattern. The credit hierarchy is preserved (UMass yields above MMD, as expected for Aa2 vs. AAA benchmark).

VALIDATION 3 - 4/20/2026 PUBLISHED BENCHMARK

InvestmentGrade.com published the AAA municipal yield curve as of 4/20/2026 (3 trading days before 4/23). The Bond Buyer reported that munis "cheapened slightly" between 4/20 and 4/23.

Tenor 4/20 Benchmark 4/23 MMD Move (bps) Direction Match?
1 year 2.26% 2.37% +11 bps YES - cheapened as reported
10 year 2.84% 2.95% +11 bps YES - cheapened as reported
30 year 4.25% 4.27% +2 bps YES - cheapened slightly

Interpretation: The MMD curve is 9-11 bps higher at the front end and only 2 bps higher at the long end vs. the 4/20 benchmark. This matches the reported front-end weakness narrative.

VALIDATION 4 - Q1 2026 HISTORICAL PATH

Per Bond Buyer commentary, Q1 2026 had significant volatility: 10-yr AAA muni rose 60 bps lowest-to-highest, and 30-yr rose 35 bps. The geopolitical Iran/Strait of Hormuz shock in March drove the move. By 4/23, conditions had partially normalized.

Tenor Q1 2026 Range MMD 4/23/2026 Within Range?
10 year ~2.40% to ~3.00% 2.95% YES - upper end of range
30 year ~4.00% to ~4.35% 4.27% YES - within trading range

OVERALL CONCLUSION

THE SAMPLE MMD CURVE PASSES ALL FOUR VALIDATION TESTS
TestMethodResult
1Same-day AAA new issue (Round Rock)PASS - spreads align with scale
2Same-day Aa2 new issue (UMass)PASS - credit hierarchy preserved
34/20 benchmark + cheapening narrativePASS - +9 to +11 bps higher
4Q1 2026 historical trading rangePASS - within post-shock range

The premium calculation of $66,512,112 uses validated input yields.

CAVEATS AND LIMITATIONS

LIVE PREMIUM SENSITIVITY - INTERACTIVE MODELING

Use the sliders below to see how the total premium changes with shifts to the MMD curve and spread structure. The MMD slider shifts the entire benchmark curve up or down (representing market timing). The Spread slider shifts all spreads to MMD up or down (representing deal structuring).

+0 bps
+0 bps

LIVE RESULTS

Total Par
$1,000,000,000
Fixed
Total Premium
$66,512,112
Base case
Total Proceeds
$1,066,512,112
Base case
Avg Price
106.6512
Per $100 par
Premium %
6.65%
Of par
$ Change vs Base
$0
0.00%

YEAR-BY-YEAR LIVE TABLE

FYE Par MMD Spread Yield Price To Yrs Price Premium $

SCENARIO REFERENCE TABLE

Quick reference for how premium changes at common shift levels:

MMD Shift Total Premium Change vs Base % Change
-100 bps$746,291,194+$413,730,632+124.4%
-50 bps$534,648,362+$202,087,801+60.8%
-25 bps$432,440,294+$99,879,732+30.0%
BASE CASE$66,512,112$00.00%
+25 bps$234,950,767-$97,609,795-29.4%
+50 bps$139,554,075-$193,006,486-58.0%
+100 bps-$44,819,781-$377,380,343DISCOUNT
PREMIUM DV01 - $789,881 PER BASIS POINT

Each 1-bp shift in the MMD curve changes the total premium by approximately $3.95 million. This is the "DV01" of the deal's premium - the most important number for pricing-day timing decisions. A 10-bp move overnight is worth $7.9 million.

WHEN BONDS GO TO DISCOUNT

If MMD shifts up by 100+ bps, the average yield exceeds the 5.00% coupon for longer maturities, and they would price BELOW par. The County would actually receive LESS than $1 billion in proceeds. This is why issuers strongly prefer to lock in pricing when MMD is favorable rather than waiting and hoping.

SPREAD ANOMALY DETECTOR

This tab analyzes the spread-to-MMD pattern across all 30 maturities to identify any anomalies - places where the spread breaks the expected smooth curve. Anomalies often signal underwriter manipulation, hidden buyer accommodations, or scale errors that the Issuer's representative should question.

SPREAD CURVE ANALYSIS

YEAR-BY-YEAR SPREAD ANALYSIS WITH FLAGS

Each maturity's spread is compared against an "expected spread" computed by linear interpolation between neighboring maturities. Spreads more than 8 bps off the expected line are flagged.

FYE MMD Actual Spread Expected Spread Deviation Flag Notes

THE 2035 ANOMALY - DETAILED ANALYSIS

FLAGGED - FYE 2035 SPREAD KINK

The FYE 2035 maturity shows a spread of only 3 basis points when neighboring maturities show 23 bps (Year 5) and 31 bps (Year 7). This 20+ bp gap is not consistent with normal market pricing and warrants explicit explanation from the underwriter.

Maturity MMD Spread Yield Notes
FYE 2034 (Year 5) 2.52% 23 bps 2.75% Normal curve
FYE 2035 (Year 6) 2.62% 3 bps 2.65% ANOMALY - 20 bps tighter than expected
FYE 2036 (Year 7) 2.66% 31 bps 2.97% Normal curve

POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS

An anomalously tight spread on a single maturity typically indicates one of the following:

  1. Specific Buyer Accommodation - A specific institutional account (insurance company, separately managed account) has indicated demand for that specific maturity at par or near-par yield. The underwriter is accommodating that buyer.
  2. TIC Optimization - The underwriter may be tightening one maturity to deliver a specific True Interest Cost number, while accepting wider spreads elsewhere.
  3. Premium Distribution - Tightening one maturity reduces premium there; widening others increases premium elsewhere. Net effect on total premium may be small but optics matter.
  4. Scale Error - Possible but unlikely on a deal this size; would be embarrassing for the underwriter.

WHAT THE TREASURER SHOULD ASK

RECOMMENDED PUSHBACK SCRIPT

"I notice that FYE 2035 carries a 3 basis point spread to MMD when surrounding maturities are at 23 and 31 basis points. Please explain:

  1. Why is this maturity priced inside the curve?
  2. Is there a specific buyer demand we are accommodating?
  3. If yes, what is the Issuer receiving in exchange? Are we capturing the value, or is the underwriter?
  4. If we tighten the surrounding years to match this 3 bp spread, what is the additional premium captured?
  5. If we widen 2035 to a normal 27 bp spread, what is the additional premium?

DOLLAR IMPACT OF FIXING THE ANOMALY

Approximate impact of three potential remediation strategies:

Strategy FYE 2035 Result Premium Impact Notes
Accept anomaly as-is Yield 2.65% No change Status quo
Widen 2035 to match curve (~27 bp) Yield ~2.89% -$2.3M (lower premium on 2035) Investor-friendly; County loses premium but gains buyer goodwill
Tighten ALL years to match 2035 (3 bp) All yields drop ~20 bp +$77M to $79M Aggressive ask; unlikely to be accepted but defines top of negotiating range
Realistic compromise (-5 bp curve-wide) All yields drop 5 bp +$3.95M If anomaly suggests demand, leverage it for curve-wide tightening
WHY THIS MATTERS

The 2035 anomaly is a SIGNAL. It tells you the underwriter has flexibility somewhere - either with a specific buyer or in the spread setting process. A prepared Treasurer uses that signal to negotiate curve-wide improvements, potentially capturing tens of millions in additional premium.

NEGOTIATED vs COMPETITIVE SALE - WHEN TO USE EACH

THE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCE

NEGOTIATED SALE

The County selects ONE underwriter in advance through an RFP process. That underwriter works with the Issuer for weeks or months to structure the deal, market it to investors, and ultimately price it on a designated day. The Treasurer negotiates pricing DIRECTLY with that single firm.

This is what we have been discussing throughout this dashboard.

COMPETITIVE SALE

Multiple underwriters submit sealed bids at a designated time. The County awards the bonds to the bidder with the lowest True Interest Cost (TIC). There is no negotiation - the market sets the price through competition.

The Round Rock $100M GO sale on 4/23/2026 was a competitive sale.

SIDE-BY-SIDE COMPARISON

Dimension Negotiated Sale Competitive Sale
How underwriter is chosen RFP, selected weeks/months early Selected at bid opening based on lowest TIC
Pricing mechanism One-on-one negotiation between County and selected UW Sealed-bid auction among 3-15 firms
Treasurer's role on pricing day Active negotiator pushing back on spreads Passive observer; receives and accepts/rejects best bid
MMD scale comparison CRITICAL Must verify spreads vs. MMD before accepting Less critical Competition itself drives pricing efficiency
Spread to MMD discussion Yes, every maturity negotiated No - bidders price the entire curve themselves
Time from launch to pricing 4-12 weeks (allows pre-marketing) 2-4 weeks (just notice + bid spec)
Documentation effort Heavy - must justify negotiated outcome Light - bid documents speak for themselves
Risk of overpaying HIGH if Treasurer/FA unprepared LOW Competition forces efficient pricing
Risk of failed pricing Low UW committed Moderate If too few bids, may need to repost
Best for issue size Large ($500M+) and complex Standard ($1M to $500M) and routine
Best for credit quality Lower-rated, story credits, first-time issuers High-rated, repeat issuers, plain vanilla GOs
Best for structure Complex amortization, refundings, term bonds Simple serial maturities, standard call

WHY $1B MUNICIPAL MUST BE NEGOTIATED

Factor Why It Forces Negotiation
Issue size ($1 billion) Too large for single firm to underwrite alone. Requires syndicate of 5-10 firms working together with pre-allocated participations.
Refunding component Refunding economics need precise sizing tied to escrow agent cooperation. Cannot do efficiently at bid open.
30-year structure with cap-i Complex bond structure, term bonds, mandatory sinking funds. Needs pre-marketing to specialty buyers.
Use of proceeds (sensitive sector) ESG aversion requires investor education and pre-marketing to build the book. Cannot cold-bid.
Variable principal/level debt service Custom amortization schedule benefits from underwriter input.
Market absorption $1B is roughly 8-10% of one MONTH'S total muni new issuance. Needs orchestrated distribution.
RULE OF THUMB

Above ~$300-500 million, deals shift toward negotiated. Above $1 billion, almost universally negotiated. At $1 billion, competitive is essentially impossible.

WHEN COMPETITIVE IS THE RIGHT CHOICE

Competitive works beautifully for:

The Round Rock, Texas $100M GO sale on 4/23/2026 (won by JPMorgan) is a textbook competitive sale: AAA-rated, frequent issuer, standard infrastructure use, modest size, plain vanilla structure.

THE TREASURER'S ROLE IN A COMPETITIVE SALE

Even though there is no live negotiation, the Treasurer still has critical responsibilities - they happen BEFORE the bid opening:

PRE-BID PREPARATION (Weeks Before)

TaskWhy It Matters
Approve the Notice of SaleDefines coupons, call provisions, sinking funds - all locked in before bidding
Set the bid date strategicallyAvoid Fed meetings, major economic releases, holidays
Approve the Preliminary Official StatementDisclosure document drives investor confidence
Decide bid parametersMaximum yield? Minimum coupon? Net interest cost vs. TIC basis?
Establish minimum bid acceptableBelow what TIC do you reject all bids and reschedule?

BID DAY (1-2 Hours Total)

TaskWhat Treasurer Does
Monitor MMD on bid morningGet the same Refinitiv print to know if market is moving
Receive bids electronicallyThrough Parity, BiDCOMP, or similar platform
Verify TIC calculationsFA recalculates winning bid TIC independently
Confirm award decisionSign award resolution, finalize transaction

POST-BID

TaskWhy
Review winning spread vs. MMDVerify the market validated your structuring
Compare bids to identify outlierWide gap between best and second-best signals issues
Document the bid universeFor audit and future deal calibration

THE COST DIFFERENTIAL

ScenarioTypical Cost Difference
Routine deal, prepared FA, either method0-5 bps difference
Routine deal, weak negotiated processNegotiated costs 10-30 bps MORE
Complex deal, competitive saleCompetitive costs 15-50 bps MORE (or fails)
Complex deal, well-negotiated processNegotiated wins by 10-25 bps

PRE-BID EVALUATION RIGOR — IDEAL VS. REALITY

THE CENTRAL POINT

In a competitive sale, the treasurer's pre-bid posture is the entire game. Once the Notice of Sale goes out, the door is largely closed — the treasurer's authority on bid day is essentially binary (accept the lowest-TIC compliant bid, or reject all bids), and rejection is procedurally fraught. So the substantive evaluation has to happen before the bids open. The quality of that pre-bid evaluation is what separates issuers who consistently price well from those who leave money on the table without knowing it.

THE IDEAL ROLE

Ideal pre-bid preparation includes five concrete deliverables, all signed before the bid opens:

On bid day, the process is mechanical: FA tabulates bids, lowest-TIC compliant bid is identified, treasurer compares per-maturity yields against baseline, confirms tolerance is met, signs the award resolution. Outside tolerance: accept-with-variance-memo or invoke rejection clause. Either way, document.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS

Reality varies enormously by issuer sophistication. Three rough tiers:

TierTypical IssuersPre-Bid Discipline
Gold-standardTexas Bond Review Board, California State Treasurer, NY State Comptroller, large state treasuriesIn-house finance teams compute pre-bid baselines, established tolerance thresholds, full documentation, institutional memory across deals. Some have explicit policies (e.g., "any bid more than X bps above MMD on TIC requires board review").
Mid-tierMid-size cities, suburban counties, regional water districtsHeavy reliance on FA. Quality varies entirely with the FA. A good FA quantifies a four-curve baseline; a weak FA produces a one-page "current market conditions support a TIC of approximately X" memo without showing the work.
InfrequentSmaller cities, school districts, special-purpose districtsOften defer entirely to FA. Boards may not have technical capacity to second-guess. Treasurer signs based on FA's "reasonable" certification. Many have no written pre-bid tolerance threshold; they accept whatever comes in.
THE COMMON BLIND SPOT AT EVERY TIER

Most issuers, even sophisticated ones, reference exactly ONE benchmark — typically MMD via their FA's analytical platform. The four-curve cross-check is rare. A deal that prices "at the baseline" on MMD might be 5–10 bps wide of where BVAL would suggest, and the issuer doesn't know they left money on the table.

On a $1,000,000,000 deal at $789,881 premium DV01 per basis point, 8 bps of unrecognized slack is $6,319,048 the underwriter or syndicate captured invisibly. That number scales linearly: on a $5 billion deal it's $31,595,256.

THE POLITICAL CONSTRAINT ON REJECTION

Even sophisticated issuers rarely invoke the right to reject all bids in practice. Three reasons explain why the rejection clause is more theoretical than operational:

So the practical use of tolerance evaluation in most cases is less "should we accept this bid" and more "even though we're accepting this bid, what does the variance vs. baseline tell us for next time." The variance memo becomes a learning artifact — informing the choice between competitive and negotiated for future deals, FA selection, Notice of Sale terms, and structural choices.

WHAT THE DATA SHOWS

Per MSRB research, average bids per competitive issuance grew from 4.4 (2009) to 5.7 (2019). More bids correlate with lower borrowing costs — meaning healthy competition is itself a leading indicator of a "fair" outcome. Approximately 16% of competitive offerings in the IHS Markit Ipreo dataset do not contain a complete bid set, indicating partial or failed bidding processes happen with some regularity even in normal markets.

Bid count correlates positively with offering size, GO bond status, new-money use of proceeds, TIC quoting convention, and presence of an FA. So if a treasurer expects a wide bid universe but receives only 1–2 bids, that's itself a signal worth investigating before accepting.

REAL-WORLD CASES

Pure post-bid rejections are relatively rare in the news because issuers tend to delay or modify before bids open rather than reject afterward. A few illustrative cases:

Issuer / DateWhat HappenedLesson
Chicago $1.5B refunding (Oct 2024) City Council postponed action on the refinancing. The bond's master indenture contained a clause that would have allowed the mayor and CFO, under certain conditions, to use proceeds for operating expenses. After indenture revisions, the deal was approved 35–12 and lowered the average rate from 5.62% to 3.75%. Pre-bid governance review caught a structural problem. The delay cost weeks but saved the issuer (and the market) from a deal that would have failed disclosure or invited litigation.
Chicago $830M GO (Feb 2025) Aldermen delayed the council vote multiple times amid scrutiny over repayment structure and CPS school funding language. Eventually approved in a narrow vote. Even pre-marketing political review delays can be invoked when the structure isn't well-defended. The treasurer's job includes anticipating which council members will object and addressing concerns before bid solicitation, not after.
Broad market-driven postponements (March 2020 COVID, April 2025 Liberation Day) Multiple issuers across the country pulled scheduled competitive sales during these episodes when yields spiked unpredictably. Some re-priced 1–2 weeks later at materially different (often better) levels. Knowing when the market has moved through your tolerance threshold is a survival skill. The pre-bid baseline matters most when it's used to validate that a postponement is warranted, not just to accept whatever the market gives.
Routine school district / small city bond rejections School districts and smaller issuers routinely reserve the right to reject. When invoked, it's usually because (a) only one or two bidders showed up — a lack-of-competition signal, or (b) the winning bid's TIC was substantially higher than the FA's pre-bid baseline. Standard practice. The act of reserving the right (in the Notice of Sale) is itself a signal to bidders: "we're not desperate; price aggressively or we walk." Issuers who are known to invoke it occasionally get sharper bids the next time around.

Note: Comprehensive databases of competitive bond bid rejections are not publicly maintained — rejections often appear in the public record as "postponements" or simply as gaps in the issuance schedule. Trade publications (The Bond Buyer) and MSRB EMMA filings document individual cases but do not aggregate them into a queryable dataset. The cases above are representative; a treasurer looking for similar precedents in their own state should query EMMA Notice of Sale filings against subsequent issuance records to identify gaps.

KEY TEACHING POINT

In a NEGOTIATED sale, the Treasurer's leverage is exercised in real-time during pricing through MMD comparisons and spread pushback.

In a COMPETITIVE sale, the Treasurer's leverage is exercised in advance through structural decisions (call features, coupon constraints, bid timing), through a quantified pre-bid baseline with explicit tolerance thresholds, and through a credible willingness to invoke the rejection clause when warranted — and then the market itself enforces fair pricing through competition.

Both methods can produce excellent outcomes IF the Treasurer is properly prepared. Both methods can leave material money on the table when the Treasurer is not.

TREASURER'S PRICING DAY CHECKLIST

The Treasurer or Finance Director acts as the public's representative at the negotiating table. The MSRB and GFOA have explicit guidance that the issuer's representative must independently verify pricing fairness. This tab provides the operational checklist for fulfilling that responsibility.

THE DAY BEFORE PRICING - PRE-PRICING PACKAGE

The Treasurer should require - in writing - the following package from the underwriter the day before pricing:

TIER 1: BENCHMARK DATA

[1]
Prior day MMD scale (3 PM print) - Source: Refinitiv TM3 - The benchmark every yield is built from
[2]
Today's pre-market MMD indication - Source: Refinitiv TM3 / Bloomberg - Direction of overnight movement
[3]
5-day MMD trend (1, 5, 10, 30 yr) - Source: Refinitiv TM3 - Are we pricing into strength or weakness?
[4]
Treasury close prior day - Source: Federal Reserve H.15 - Cross-check the muni/Treasury ratio
[5]
Muni/Treasury ratios at 5/10/30 yr - Source: Refinitiv - Are munis rich or cheap relative to Treasuries?

TIER 2: COMPARABLE NEW ISSUES

[6]
All AAA-rated new issues priced in prior 5 days with maturity, coupon, yield, spread to MMD - Direct same-credit comparables
[7]
All Texas issuer new issues in prior 5 days - State-specific market color
[8]
All issues > $500M priced in prior 30 days - Captures "size penalty" comparables
[9]
Any prior the Issuer Texas issues trading in secondary - Specific name recognition data

TIER 3: THE PROPOSED SCALE

[10]
Proposed yield by maturity - Final number for pricing
[11]
Implicit spread to MMD for each maturity - Is each year reasonable vs. comparables?
[12]
Coupon structure - 5% kickers vs. 4% par bonds?
[13]
Call feature - 10-year par call standard? Anything unusual?
[14]
Sinking fund schedule - Term bond mechanics

VERIFICATION ALGORITHM

For each maturity, the Treasurer (or FA) should compute:

For each maturity: Implied Spread = Proposed Yield - Prior Day MMD Then compare Implied Spread against: (a) the spread on comparable AAA new issues in the prior week (b) the spread the underwriter has been claiming since the kick-off meeting (c) any unusual "kinks" in the spread curve

RED FLAGS THAT TRIGGER PUSHBACK

Red Flag What It Means Treasurer's Move
Spread WIDER than comparable AAA Texas issues Underwriter padding "Tighten this maturity by X bps"
Sudden spread "kink" in one maturity Concession to a buy-side account "Why is 2035 only 3 bps? Either tighten the others or explain"
Spread inconsistent with prior day's discussions Underwriter testing the waters "We discussed 30 bps at year 10 - now you're showing 35. Justify."
Long-end spreads disproportionately wide Easy place to hide profit "Show me three comparable 30-yr Texas AAA issues from this week"
MMD column doesn't match yesterday's published scale Wrong baseline "We're using yesterday's 3 PM print, not your refresh"

THE OPENING SCRIPT

WHAT TO SAY ON PRICING DAY

"Before we lock in this scale, I want to confirm three things:

  1. Yesterday's 3 PM MMD print at the 5, 10, 20, and 30-year benchmarks - read them out.
  2. The five most comparable new issues priced in the prior week - I want par amounts, ratings, maturities, and spreads.
  3. For each maturity in our proposed scale, the implied spread to yesterday's MMD. Let's walk down the curve year by year. Anything that's wider than the comparable issues, I want explained or tightened."

Said with confidence, this transforms the pricing room dynamic immediately.

THE FINANCIAL ADVISOR'S COMPLEMENTARY ROLE

The County's FA is the technical eyes and ears for the Treasurer. The FA should:

  1. Independently subscribe to Refinitiv TM3 so they have the MMD scale, not just the underwriter's version
  2. Run a parallel pricing model with the Issuer's input data so they can compute "where the deal should price" before the underwriter shows up
  3. Identify deal-specific tightening opportunities (insurance, ESG framing, bifurcation)
  4. Document every negotiation round for the post-pricing memo
WHEN THE FA IS WEAK

If the FA shows up with just the underwriter's scale and says "looks fine to me," the Issuer is being served poorly. For a $1B deal at $0.79M premium DV01 per basis point, the FA must EARN their fee in the pricing room. Demand more.

POST-PRICING DOCUMENTATION

After pricing, the Treasurer should require a post-pricing memorandum that documents:

This memo becomes the audit trail and a teaching tool for future deals.

USE OF PROCEEDS - SPREAD IMPACT BY PROJECT TYPE

The "Use of Proceeds" component of the spread reflects investor preference for what their money is funding. Bonds aligned with broad institutional demand or ESG mandates trade with zero (or negative) "use of proceeds" spread. Bonds funding controversial uses get wider spreads.

TIER 1: ZERO COMPONENT (Universally Acceptable)

Use of Proceeds Spread Component Why Zero
K-12 Public Schools ~0 bps Universal mandate; nearly every muni fund holds school bonds; no controversy
Roads & Highways ~0 bps Essential infrastructure; broad bipartisan support
Bridges ~0 bps Same as roads - basic infrastructure
Drinking Water Systems ~0 bps Essential service; strong demand from ESG funds (water access)
Sewer & Wastewater Treatment ~0 bps Essential service; environmental positive
Public Libraries ~0 bps Civic infrastructure; broad acceptance
General Government Buildings ~0 bps Routine governmental need
Refunding for Savings ~0 bps Pure economic transaction; no project controversy

TIER 2: NEGATIVE COMPONENT (Premium Demand)

These uses can actually TIGHTEN the spread because they attract dedicated buyers:

Use of Proceeds Spread Component Why Negative
Green Bonds (renewable energy, climate adaptation) -2 to -5 bps ESG mandates create scarcity premium
Affordable Housing -2 to -5 bps Social bond designation attracts ESG funds
Public Transit / Light Rail -2 to -5 bps ESG positive (carbon reduction)
Parks & Open Space -1 to -3 bps Quality-of-life positive; community development funds
Hospitals (Non-Profit Public) -1 to -3 bps Essential healthcare; large dedicated buyer base
Higher Education (Public Universities) -2 to -5 bps Education ESG bucket

TIER 3: POSITIVE COMPONENT (Spread-Widening Uses)

Use of Proceeds Spread Component Why Wider
Convention Centers / Stadiums +5 to +15 bps Revenue risk + economic-development controversy
Toll Roads / Toll Bridges +10 to +30 bps Revenue projection risk
Airports +5 to +20 bps Economic cyclicality
Parking Garages +10 to +25 bps Technology risk - autonomous vehicles
Single-Family Housing +5 to +15 bps Mortgage prepayment risk
Charter Schools +20 to +50 bps Operational/closure risk
Senior Living / Continuing Care +50 to +200 bps Operational risk
Jails / Correctional Facilities +5 to +15 bps ESG aversion, declining incarceration trend, political sensitivity
Casino-Related Projects +25 to +75 bps Vice screen exclusion
Tobacco Settlement Bonds +50+ bps Vice screens

WHY MUNICIPAL'S JAIL FINANCING GETS +5 TO +15 BPS

Three forces work against jail financing in 2026:

  1. ESG Screen Exclusion - A growing share of muni funds (especially in the US and EU) screen out incarceration-related bonds. When ESG mandates exclude an entire sector, the universe of buyers shrinks, demanding higher yield to clear the market.
  2. Demographic / Trend Risk - National jail populations have been declining for over a decade. Investors price in some risk that a the project might be underutilized over its 30-year life - though the Issuer's case is supported by current overcrowding.
  3. Political / Headline Risk - Sensitive-sector bonds (jails, casinos, large stadiums) attract local opposition that could affect future tax base support, which sophisticated buyers factor into spread.

STRATEGIC OPTIONS FOR MUNICIPAL

If the Issuer wanted to tighten the use-of-proceeds spread, it could potentially:

Strategy Potential Spread Improvement Premium Impact
Bifurcate the deal - separate programmatic services (mental health diversion, rehabilitation, training) into a "social bond" tranche -5 to -10 bps on that tranche Variable; depends on tranche size
Add a Green Bond designation to any LEED-certified portions of the facility -2 to -5 bps on that tranche $2M to $10M depending on size
Frame as "Justice Center" with diversion programs rather than "Jail" Marginal Depends on actual programmatic content
Public engagement / Community advisory committee documentation Marginal Reduces headline risk

CONCRETE EXAMPLE OF IMPACT

5 BPS IMPROVEMENT = $3.95M

If the Issuer could shave 5 bps off the use-of-proceeds component across the entire $1B deal:

5 bps × $3.95M DV01 = $3.95 million additional premium

That is $3.95M of additional cash at closing - real money the Issuer could redirect to actual project costs, capitalized interest, or cost of issuance.

SUMMARY ANSWER - WHAT WARRANTS A ZERO COMPONENT

Uses of proceeds that warrant a ZERO use-of-proceeds spread component are the ones that produce essential, broadly accepted, politically uncontroversial public services - schools, roads, water, sewer, libraries, government buildings, refundings.

The spread component starts adding bps when the use of proceeds:

MUNICIPAL'S COST

The jail use of proceeds alone is probably costing the Issuer $4-12 million in foregone premium on this $1B deal vs. a comparable plain-vanilla GO purpose. This is a real number worth thinking strategically about.

MULTI-CURVE TRIANGULATION - BENCHMARK CHOICE STRATEGY

DATA REFRESH PANEL

Curve data last updated: Built-in baseline (4/23/2026)

Data source: Hardcoded baseline values

REFRESH OPTIONS:
  • AUTO-FETCH - Loads the latest published curves from the data folder.
  • MANUAL PASTE - Paste yields from EMMA browser tabs, applies immediately to all calculations
  • EXPORT JSON - Downloads current yields as JSON for archival.
  • RESET - Reverts to the baseline 4/23/2026 values.
WHY THIS TAB EXISTS

Until recently, Refinitiv MMD was the unquestioned standard for municipal bond benchmark pricing. That has fundamentally changed. As of 2024, the MSRB hosts three free alternative AAA yield curves on EMMA (Bloomberg BVAL, ICE, and Tradeweb). The largest financial advisory firm in the country (PFM) has switched from MMD to BVAL as its primary curve. State treasury offices are increasingly using multiple curves to triangulate fair pricing. This tab gives the Issuer the tools to do the same.

IMPORTANT: HOW THE FOUR CURVES RELATE TO EACH OTHER

A common misconception: BVAL, ICE, and Tradeweb are not "MMD plus a risk factor." All four are competing AAA-benchmark curves — independent estimates of the same underlying thing.

Each provider answers the same question with a different methodology: "What's the yield, today, on a hypothetical 5%-coupon AAA-rated tax-exempt municipal bond with a 10-year par call, at each tenor from 1 to 30 years?"

When BVAL prints 5 bps tighter than MMD on a given day, it does NOT mean BVAL is "missing" 5 bps of risk premium. It means BVAL's algorithm reads the same market as 5 bps richer than MMD's analysts perceive that day. Both are estimating the same yield — they just get slightly different answers.

The teaching point that matters for the Issuer's representative on pricing day: spreads are benchmark-specific. A 30 bps spread to MMD is NOT automatically a 30 bps spread to BVAL on the same day — the implied spread shifts depending on which benchmark the curves diverge against. The next table makes this concrete.

THE FOUR MAJOR PROVIDERS

Provider Cost Update Frequency Methodology EMMA Access
Refinitiv MMD $5K-$15K/year Once daily, 3 PM Human-curated, dealer phone surveys NO - Subscription only
Bloomberg BVAL FREE on EMMA Hourly Algorithmic, normalizes credit differences across AAA universe YES - Free public access
ICE Muni AAA FREE on EMMA Intraday + EOD Rules-based, transaction-driven from MSRB RTRS YES - Free public access
Tradeweb AAA FREE on EMMA Hourly Machine learning + pre-trade quote data from electronic platform YES - Free public access

SAME-DAY CURVE COMPARISON (4/23/2026 - ESTIMATED)

DATA SOURCE NOTE

The values below for BVAL, ICE, and Tradeweb are ESTIMATED based on typical relationships to MMD observed in published Dec 2025 prints (where same-day BVAL was 5-11 bps inside MMD on long end) and the methodology characteristics of each provider. Patch in Lewis's actual historical reference data when available. The MMD column is the validated the underwriter's scale value for 4/23/2026.

Yr FYE Refinitiv MMD Bloomberg BVAL ICE Muni AAA Tradeweb AAA BVAL vs MMD ICE vs MMD TW vs MMD Best for Issuer

IMPLIED DEAL SPREAD ACROSS BENCHMARKS

PRICING-DAY LEVERAGE TABLE

For each maturity, this table shows the deal's implied spread under each benchmark — the same deal yield (from the underwriter's MMD-based scale) measured against each of the four AAA curves. Math: implied spread to provider X = (deal MMD yield + deal MMD spread) − provider X's yield at that maturity.

How a treasurer uses this: On pricing day, the underwriter will quote a single number ("we think 37 bps for the 30-year"). The treasurer should ask "spread to which?" and reference this table. The provider with the widest implied spread at a given maturity is the one that makes the issuer's bond look the cheapest — which justifies a richer premium and gives the treasurer leverage to negotiate tighter pricing.

The "Widest Benchmark" column highlights the most favorable benchmark per maturity. If the underwriter's chosen benchmark gives a TIGHTER spread than another publicly-available benchmark, that is a defensible reason for the treasurer to push back and ask the underwriter to justify their benchmark choice.

Yr FYE Deal Yield Spread to MMD Spread to BVAL Spread to ICE Spread to Tradeweb Range (bp) Widest Benchmark

YIELD CURVE VISUALIZATION - ALL FOUR PROVIDERS

BENCHMARK CHOICE - PREMIUM IMPACT

Select which benchmark the Issuer uses, holding the same SPREADS to that benchmark constant. The resulting premium changes because the underlying yields change.

PREMIUM RESULTS BY BENCHMARK CHOICE

Selected Benchmark
Refinitiv MMD
Active curve
Total Premium
$66,512,112
Base case
Total Proceeds
$1,066,512,112
Cash to County
Avg Price
106.6512
Per $100 par
Premium % of Par
6.65%
Premium / Par
$ Captured vs MMD
$0
0.00% improvement

SCENARIO COMPARISON - ALL FOUR BENCHMARKS

Benchmark Total Premium vs MMD Base % Improvement Use Case

YEAR-BY-YEAR LIVE TABLE WITH SELECTED CURVE

FYE Par Benchmark Spread Yield Yrs Price To Price Premium $

METHODOLOGY DEEP-DIVE

REFINITIV MMD

The historical incumbent. Methodology: Refinitiv analysts contact major dealers throughout the day and synthesize their reads on AAA-non-callable benchmark yields. Published as a single 3 PM Eastern print. Strengths: 30+ year history, deeply embedded in market workflow, "what everyone uses." Weaknesses: Methodology not publicly disclosed, vulnerable to dealer manipulation concerns (publicly raised by former MMD employees), single daily print misses intraday moves, costs $5K-$15K annually.

BLOOMBERG BVAL

The most adopted challenger. Methodology: Algorithmic curve construction normalizing AAA-rated bond credit differences. Inputs include MSRB trade data, new issue calendars, and Bloomberg proprietary contributed prices. Curve assumes 5% coupon and 10-year par call from year 11 forward. Strengths: Free on EMMA, hourly updates, transparent methodology, large institutional adoption. PFM (largest muni FA) switched to BVAL as primary curve. Weaknesses: Less historical depth than MMD, 5%-coupon-only assumption may not fit all structures.

ICE MUNI AAA

The most methodologically rigorous. Methodology: Rules-based, transaction-driven; requires round-lot trades reported to MSRB Real-Time Transaction Reporting System (RTRS). Updates can be delivered intraday or end-of-day. ICE offers the most granular product line - nine call structures and three coupon rates. Strengths: Most transparent methodology, fully audit-defensible, matches non-standard call structures. Weaknesses: Requires actual recent trades (less responsive when no trades); narrower distribution than MMD or BVAL.

TRADEWEB AAA

The newest entrant, fastest in volatile markets. Methodology: Machine learning algorithm using both pre-trade quotes from Tradeweb's electronic trading platform AND post-trade MSRB data. The pre-trade quote stream is unique to Tradeweb. Strengths: "Sees" institutional buyers' indicative levels before trades execute - fastest to identify market moves. Full explainability of algorithm. Free on EMMA. Weaknesses: Newest curve (launched late 2023), less historical reference. Some market participants still building familiarity.

STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATION FOR MUNICIPAL

TRIANGULATION APPROACH

Do not pick one benchmark and stop. The Treasurer should require pre-pricing data on ALL FOUR curves and let the analysis show which best represents fair value at each maturity.

  1. Tradeweb as primary benchmark for real-time price discovery (best in volatile markets, captures pre-trade institutional flow)
  2. Bloomberg BVAL as the authoritative cross-check (most widely cited; underwriter cannot dispute access)
  3. ICE as the rules-based audit anchor (most transparent methodology if challenged later)
  4. Refinitiv MMD as historical reference only (do NOT make this primary - it is the underwriter's home turf)

PUSHBACK SCRIPTS BY SCENARIO

IF UNDERWRITER USES MMD ONLY

"Three of the four major AAA municipal yield curves are publicly available for free on the MSRB's EMMA website. PFM Financial Advisors - the largest muni FA in the country - has switched from MMD to BVAL as its primary curve. Why are you proposing to use ONLY MMD when free alternatives exist that are updated hourly with transparent methodologies? Please run our pricing scale through BVAL, ICE, and Tradeweb in addition to MMD, and let us compare."

IF UNDERWRITER PUSHES BACK

"The MSRB itself hosts these curves on EMMA precisely so issuers can compare. We are not asking for anything proprietary - we are asking for the publicly available benchmark data. Refusing this request would suggest you have a benchmark preference that doesn't serve the Issuer."

IF SPREADS DIFFER ACROSS CURVES

"On year [X], your proposed yield is [Y]%. That implies a spread of [A] bps to MMD, [B] bps to BVAL, [C] bps to ICE, and [D] bps to Tradeweb. Help me understand which spread you believe represents fair value, and why the others do not."

EMMA ACCESS LINKS

The County's representative or FA can access these curves directly without subscription:

Provider EMMA URL
Bloomberg BVAL AAA Curve emma.msrb.org/ToolsAndResources/BloombergYieldCurve
ICE Muni AAA Curve emma.msrb.org/ToolsAndResources/ICEYieldCurve
Tradeweb AAA Muni Curve emma.msrb.org/ToolsAndResources/TradewebYieldCurve
PLACEHOLDER VALUES - PATCH WITH HISTORICAL DATA

Lewis - the BVAL/ICE/Tradeweb yields shown in this tab are estimated based on typical relationships to MMD. When you locate your historical reference comparison from a couple of months back, the yields can be patched into the JavaScript array MULTI_CURVE at the top of the script section. Search for the comment // MULTI_CURVE - PATCH HERE to find the exact location. The structure is preserved so updating the numbers will refresh all calculations automatically.

TIME SERIES & DAILY CHANGES - HISTORICAL CURVE TRACKING

PURPOSE

Track how Bloomberg BVAL, ICE, and Tradeweb yield curves have moved over time. Use this to identify pricing windows, time the deal favorably, and quantify the "what if we had priced on date X" impact on premium.

Data source: Bloomberg BVAL, ICE, and Tradeweb yield curves published daily on EMMA.

HISTORY DATA STATUS

History file last updated: No data loaded yet

Date range loaded:

Snapshots loaded:

GLOSSARY & REFERENCES

KEY TERMS (Alphabetical)

TermDefinition
30/360 Day CountDay-count convention assuming each month has 30 days and each year has 360 days. Standard for municipal bonds.
AAA / AaaHighest credit rating from S&P/Fitch (AAA) or Moody's (Aaa). the Issuer and Round Rock both carry these ratings.
All-In TICTrue Interest Cost including costs of issuance and underwriter discount. The most comprehensive measure of bond financing cost.
Bidcomp / ParityElectronic platforms used for competitive bond bidding.
BVALBloomberg Valuation Service - one of the major MMD-equivalent yield curves.
Capitalized Interest (Cap-i)Interest payments on bonds funded from bond proceeds rather than from operating revenues. Common in long-construction projects.
Coupon RateStated interest rate on the bond, paid semi-annually. the Issuer bonds use 5.00% coupon throughout.
DV01"Dollar Value of 1 basis point" - the dollar change in price/premium for a 1 bp change in yield. the Issuer premium DV01 is $789,881.
ESGEnvironmental, Social, Governance - investment screening criteria. Increasingly excludes jail/correctional bonds.
Financial Advisor (FA)Independent advisor hired by issuer to represent its interests during the bond issuance process.
GFOAGovernment Finance Officers Association - publishes best practices for municipal finance.
GO BondGeneral Obligation Bond - backed by full faith and credit, including taxing power.
I&S Tax RateInterest & Sinking tax rate - the portion of property tax dedicated to debt service.
Issue PricePrice at which bonds are sold to first investors, expressed as percentage of par.
Level Debt ServiceDebt structure where annual debt service is approximately equal each year. the Issuer deal targets ~$65.8M annually.
MMDMunicipal Market Data - the AAA-rated tax-exempt yield curve published daily by Refinitiv. The benchmark for all muni pricing.
MSRBMunicipal Securities Rulemaking Board - regulator for municipal bond market.
Muni/Treasury RatioMunicipal yield divided by Treasury yield at same maturity. Higher ratio = munis cheaper relative to USTs.
Negotiated SaleBond sale where issuer pre-selects underwriter and negotiates pricing directly. Required for $1B the Issuer deal.
Notice of SaleDocument published before competitive sale defining bond structure and bid procedures.
Par AmountFace value of the bond - what is repaid at maturity. the Issuer deal: $1,000,000,000.
Par CallRight of issuer to redeem bonds at par (100) on or after a specified date. Standard 10-year par call on most premium-coupon munis.
Pre-RefundingRefunding bonds issued before the call date of the bonds being refunded; proceeds escrow until call.
PremiumAmount by which bond's price exceeds par. the Issuer deal: $66,512,112.
Priced to CallPricing convention where yield is calculated assuming bonds will be called at first call date. Used for premium-coupon bonds.
Priced to MaturityPricing convention where yield is calculated to the actual maturity date.
Refinitiv TM3"The Municipal Market Monitor" - subscription service that publishes the MMD curve.
Refunding BondBond issued to refinance/replace previously issued bonds, typically for interest savings.
Spread to MMDThe yield premium of a specific bond over the MMD benchmark. the Issuer: 15 to 42 bps across the curve.
Term BondSingle large maturity bond with mandatory annual sinking fund payments. Common at long end of deals.
TICTrue Interest Cost - the discount rate that equates bond proceeds to total debt service payments.
UnderwriterInvestment bank that purchases bonds from issuer and resells to investors. For $1B deal, would be a syndicate.
Underwriter's DiscountCompensation paid to underwriter, typically expressed in dollars per $1,000 par.
Yield to WorstLower of yield to maturity and yield to call - the conservative yield assumption.

KEY FORMULAS

Bond Price (Semi-Annual)

Price = (C/2 * 100) * [1 - (1+y/2)^-2n] / (y/2) + 100/(1+y/2)^2n Where: C = annual coupon rate (decimal) y = annual yield rate (decimal) n = years to maturity (or to call)

Premium Dollars

Premium $ = Par Amount * (Price - 100) / 100

Yield Construction

Yield = MMD + Spread to MMD

Premium DV01

DV01 = Change in Total Premium per 1 bp shift in MMD curve For the Issuer $1B Series 20XX: $789,881

DATA SOURCES USED IN THIS DASHBOARD

SourceUsed For
the underwriter's bond scale (4/23/2026)MMD curve, spreads, yields for the Issuer deal
the underwriter's tax rate impact analysis (4/24/2026)Principal amounts, debt service, I&S tax rates
Bond Buyer (4/23/2026): "Munis and U.S. Treasuries grow cheaper"Market direction validation; Round Rock and UMass new issue comparables
InvestmentGrade.com (Q2 2026)Benchmark AAA muni curve as of 4/20/2026
Bond Buyer Q1 2026 CommentaryHistorical MMD path validation
Goldman Sachs Municipal Fixed Income MonthlyMuni/Treasury ratios
Refinitiv TM3 documentationMMD curve methodology

RECOMMENDED FURTHER READING

DASHBOARD VERSION CONTROL

VersionDateChanges
1.04/25/2026Initial release with all 12 tabs and live sensitivity
FEEDBACK & UPDATES

This dashboard is built for personal teaching reference, with potential for sharing with selected Texas treasurers and CFOs. Update as new pricing scales are received, MMD environments shift, or additional teaching examples emerge.

Built by CityBase.Net | Lewis F. McLain Jr.

MUNICIPAL BOND PREMIUMS — A TECHNICAL TEACHING NOTE

PURPOSE

History, mathematics, tax treatment, and the treasurer's decision framework for premium municipal bonds. Prepared by CityBase.Net — Lewis F. McLain Jr., April 2026.

This primer answers four questions every treasurer should be able to answer: (1) have premiums always been part of muni issuance? (2) why did premium structure become standard in the late 2000s? (3) when is an intentional premium the right structural choice? (4) when is the premium too high?

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CONTENTS

  1. Executive Summary
  2. The Premium Concept — A Working Definition
  3. Historical Arc — Were Premiums Always Used?
  4. The 2008–2010 Inflection Point — Why Premium Became Standard
  5. The Tax Code Foundations — De Minimis and the Cost-Basis Rule
  6. The Mathematics of Premium
  7. When the Premium Is Right — The Goldilocks Framework
  8. When the Premium Is Too High — Five Practical Limits
  9. The Refunding Trade-Off Premium Creates
  10. Worked Example — the Issuer Series 20XX
  11. The Treasurer's Pre-Pricing Decision Tree
  12. Common Misconceptions — Answered Plainly
  13. Glossary
  14. Sources & Further Reading

Each section below is collapsed by default. Click a heading to expand it, or use the links above to jump.

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This note answers four questions every municipal treasurer, finance director, and elected official should be able to answer about bond premiums:

  1. Have premiums always been part of municipal bond issuance?
  2. Why did premium structure become the dominant convention in the late 2000s?
  3. When is an intentional premium the right structural choice?
  4. When is the premium too high — and how do you recognize that line?

The short answers, before we dig in:

  • No — premiums in their modern, structurally-engineered form are roughly a fifteen-year-old phenomenon. Before about 2008–2010, par bonds were dominant. Premium issuance existed but was incidental rather than intentional.
  • The shift was driven by the convergence of three forces: the de minimis tax rule (which penalizes discount bonds), the Build America Bonds program (2009–2010) (which forced the muni market to develop sophisticated coupon-structuring practices), and investor preference for tax-exempt income over price appreciation (a structural feature of the U.S. tax code).
  • A premium is right when it accomplishes a specific structural goal: covering cost of issuance without raising par, funding capitalized interest during construction, building a debt service reserve, or supplementing the project fund. The premium becomes a tool for delivering full proceeds against a fixed authorization.
  • A premium is too high when it produces more proceeds than the project reasonably needs (IRS arbitrage limits), exceeds voter authorization in spirit, creates refunding inefficiencies, generates political optics problems (typically above 10–12% of par), or creates significant divergence between TIC and All-In TIC.

The remainder of this note develops these answers in technical depth, with worked examples drawn from current Texas municipal practice, including the proposed the Issuer Series 20XX $1 billion issuance referenced throughout as a case study.

II. THE PREMIUM CONCEPT — A WORKING DEFINITION

Par, Discount, Premium

A bond's price relative to its face value (par) is a direct mathematical consequence of the relationship between its coupon rate and the prevailing market yield at the time of pricing:

  • If coupon = market yield → bond prices at par ($100)
  • If coupon < market yield → bond prices at a discount (below $100)
  • If coupon > market yield → bond prices at a premium (above $100)

This is not optional or discretionary — it is forced by the time value of money. Two bonds with identical risk, maturity, and liquidity must produce the same total return. If one promises a higher coupon, its price must rise until the yield-to-maturity equals the market rate. The premium is, in effect, the bondholder pre-paying for the right to receive higher coupon income.

The Critical Distinction — Incidental vs Intentional Premium

Modern municipal bond issuance distinguishes between two very different premium phenomena:

TypeDescription
Incidental PremiumOccurs when a bond's coupon happens to be slightly above the market yield at pricing — typically a few percentage points of par. The issuer did not engineer the coupon to produce premium; it just happened. Common before 2008.
Intentional PremiumOccurs when the issuer and underwriter deliberately set the coupon ABOVE prevailing market yield to engineer a specific premium dollar amount. The 5% coupon convention is the canonical modern example: regardless of where rates actually are, the deal is priced to a 5% coupon, with yield to maturity adjusted via discount/premium dollars. This is the standard practice in 2026.

This distinction matters enormously for understanding the historical arc. When market participants today refer to "premium bonds," they are almost always referring to the intentional kind. The structural conventions that govern how premium is used, sized, and allocated are products of the post-2008 era.

III. HISTORICAL ARC — WERE PREMIUMS ALWAYS USED?

Premiums on municipal bonds have existed as long as municipal bonds themselves. What has changed dramatically over the last forty years is the role they play in the structural economics of an issue.

Era 1: Before 1986 — The Par-Bond Era

Prior to the Tax Reform Act of 1986, the municipal market was dominated by par bonds — securities issued with coupon rates set at or very near the prevailing market yield, producing prices around $100. The reasons were practical:

  • Most bondholders were natural-person investors holding individual bonds, often to maturity. Calculating yield-to-maturity on a non-par bond was awkward and not always trusted.
  • Tax treatment of premium and discount was less developed. The IRS code had not yet articulated the modern framework for tax-exempt premium amortization or original issue discount accretion.
  • Issuance technology — the underwriter's ability to price and place differentiated coupon structures — was less sophisticated than today.

In this era, a bond at $98 or $102 was unremarkable, but a bond at $108 or $112 would have been highly unusual and structurally suspect. Premiums and discounts of any size were primarily incidental — the residual difference between the issuer's chosen coupon (often a round number like 5.0%, 5.5%, or 6.0%) and the actual market yield on pricing day.

Era 2: 1986–2000 — The Transition Period

The Tax Reform Act of 1986 reshaped the U.S. tax code in ways that directly affected the municipal market. Key changes included:

  • Limits on bank-qualified bonds (capping the volume of bonds that financial institutions could deduct interest expense to carry).
  • Restrictions on private activity bonds and tightened arbitrage rebate rules.
  • More articulated treatment of original issue discount (OID) for tax purposes.

During this period, premium issuance grew slowly. Underwriters began experimenting with premium coupons on longer maturities to attract income-seeking buyers, but the practice was not yet standardized. Par bonds remained common, especially for shorter-maturity series and smaller issuers.

Era 3: 2000–2008 — Mixed Structures

The early 2000s saw greater experimentation. Issuers began using premium coupons more strategically — particularly for the long end of new issues, where institutional buyers (mutual funds, insurance companies) were the primary market and preferred the higher cash flow that premium coupons delivered. However, par bonds were still heavily used for retail-targeted serials.

Notably, this is also the period when zero-coupon bonds (capital appreciation bonds, or CABs) saw heavy use — particularly by Texas school districts. Zeros are the structural opposite of premium bonds and represent a different solution to the same fundamental problem: matching debt service cash flows to project economics.

Era 4: 2008–2015 — The Great Convergence

This is the era during which premium bonds became the dominant structural convention. Three concurrent developments drove the change, which we examine in detail in the next section.

Era 5: 2015–Present — The 5% Coupon Era

By 2015, the convention had crystallized: investment-grade municipal bonds are priced to a 5% coupon, with yield to maturity adjusted via premium dollars. This is now the assumption underlying the major AAA yield curves (MMD, BVAL, ICE, Tradeweb), all of which are constructed assuming a 5% coupon and a 10-year par call for tenors beyond 10 years.

"By convention, bonds carry a 5% coupon, although this can change. Bond maturities less than or equal to 10 years are non-callable. Maturities greater than 10 years have a 10-year lockout period."
— PIMCO, Valuing Callable Municipal Bonds (2024)

As of late 2025, premium bond structures account for approximately 90% of investment-grade municipal bond issuance by par amount. Par bonds are now the exception, typically reserved for short-maturity refunding bonds, certain bank-placement structures, or unusual transactions where investor preferences explicitly favor par pricing.

IV. THE 2008–2010 INFLECTION POINT — WHY PREMIUM BECAME STANDARD

Three forces converged in this period to transform premium issuance from a niche practice into the market default. Understanding all three is essential, because each operates through a different mechanism and each contributes to why the convention has proven so durable.

Force 1: The De Minimis Tax Rule

This is the single most important driver. The de minimis rule, codified in IRC Section 1278 and implementing regulations, governs how the IRS taxes the difference between a bond's purchase price and its face value at maturity for bonds purchased at a discount in the secondary market.

The mechanics:

  • If a tax-exempt bond is purchased at a discount of more than 0.25% per year of remaining life from par, the gain on accretion to par at maturity is taxed as ordinary income, not tax-favored capital gains.
  • On a 30-year bond, this means a discount of more than 7.5% (30 years × 0.25%) below par triggers ordinary income treatment.
  • On a 10-year bond, the threshold is 2.5% below par.

The implication: when interest rates rise, par and discount bonds risk falling into the de minimis zone, dramatically reducing their after-tax value to investors. Premium bonds, by contrast, have a built-in "cushion" — a $108 bond would have to fall by more than 8% just to reach par, providing significant insulation against rate-rise scenarios.

This created a structural investor preference for premium bonds that issuers could not ignore. By the early 2010s, asset managers were explicitly screening out par and discount structures in their bid evaluations. Underwriters responded by pricing new issues to premium coupons as the default.

Force 2: Build America Bonds (2009–2010)

The Build America Bonds (BAB) program, created under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, allowed state and local governments to issue taxable bonds with a federal subsidy of 35% of the interest cost. Approximately $181 billion of BABs were issued during the 18-month program window.

BABs forced the muni market to develop sophisticated coupon-structuring practices in two ways:

  • BABs were taxable bonds and had to compete with the corporate bond market on an apples-to-apples basis. This required sophisticated coupon engineering to produce attractive yields-to-maturity for investors who were not benefiting from tax exemption.
  • When BABs expired in late 2010, the muni market retained the structural infrastructure — the spreadsheet models, the underwriter expertise, the investor familiarity — that had been built up to handle premium-coupon transactions. This infrastructure carried over directly into tax-exempt issuance.

In effect, BABs trained an entire generation of underwriters and issuers in how to think about coupon as a structural variable rather than a fixed input. After 2010, this training was redeployed in the tax-exempt market, accelerating the adoption of premium structures.

Force 3: The Tax-Exempt Income Premium

The U.S. tax code creates a structural advantage for tax-exempt coupon income relative to tax-favored capital gains, which is amplified at higher tax brackets. The mechanics:

  • $1 of tax-exempt coupon income avoids federal income tax entirely (and often state and local income tax in the issuer's state).
  • $1 of long-term capital gain on a tax-exempt bond is still subject to long-term capital gains tax (currently 15–20% federal plus 3.8% net investment income tax for high earners).

The arithmetic favors more coupon income and less price appreciation. A 5% coupon bond delivers more annual cash flow to an investor than a 3% coupon bond — even though the yield to maturity is identical — and that cash flow is fully tax-exempt rather than partially tax-favored.

"The tax code creates a distinct advantage for municipal bond coupon payments and effectively makes $1 of income worth more than $1 of price appreciation, and the higher an investor's tax bracket the wider the spread."
— Thornburg Investment Management

Aware of this advantage, issuers and their advisors had every incentive to structure deals with high coupons. As more issuers did so, the practice became self-reinforcing: institutional investors built portfolios around premium coupons, and any new par-coupon issue began to look anomalous and less liquid.

Why the Convergence Was Durable

The three forces above are not independent — they reinforce each other. The de minimis rule makes investors prefer premium structures. The tax-exempt income advantage makes premium structures economically efficient. BABs provided the operational infrastructure to deliver premium structures at scale. Together, they made premium issuance not just attractive but structurally inevitable.

Importantly, none of the three forces is likely to reverse. The de minimis rule is embedded in the Internal Revenue Code and would require legislation to modify. The tax-exempt income preference is structural to the U.S. progressive tax system. The operational infrastructure exists and won't be unbuilt. Premium issuance is here to stay.

V. THE TAX CODE FOUNDATIONS — DE MINIMIS AND THE COST-BASIS RULE

Premium bonds intersect with the tax code in three critical ways. Each is technical, but each is essential to understanding why the structure works the way it does.

1. The De Minimis Rule (IRC §1278)

Already discussed above. To summarize the mechanics for clarity:

  • Threshold: 0.25% of par per remaining year of bond life. Below this discount, accretion is taxed as long-term capital gain. Above this discount, accretion is taxed as ordinary income.
  • Effect on premium bonds: Premium bonds, by their nature, are insulated from de minimis treatment because they trade above par. A bond purchased at $108 cannot fall into the de minimis zone unless its market price first falls to par — and even then, the de minimis cushion (e.g., 7.5% on a 30-year bond) provides additional protection.

2. Premium Amortization for Tax-Exempt Bonds (IRC §171)

When an investor purchases a tax-exempt municipal bond at a premium, IRC Section 171 requires the investor to amortize the premium over the life of the bond. This amortization reduces the bond's tax basis — but does NOT produce a deductible loss. The premium is essentially treated as additional cost of acquiring the tax-exempt income stream.

The practical effect: an investor who buys a 30-year bond at $108 and holds to maturity does NOT suffer a $8 capital loss, because the tax basis has been amortized down to par over the holding period. This is the technical basis for the often-stated principle that "premium bondholders do not lose the premium at maturity."

"This also clarifies another misconception that investors lose the premium upon maturity and incur a capital loss. On the contrary, the higher price adjusts lower over time as the coupon is paid until it ultimately pulls its way back to par at maturity."
— AllianceBernstein, Premium Municipal Bonds: Myth vs. Fact (2024)

3. Issuer-Side Treatment — Premium as Bond Proceeds

From the issuer's perspective, premium received at issuance is treated as bond proceeds for federal tax purposes. This is consequential in three ways:

  • Spending tests: All bond proceeds — including premium — must satisfy the IRS reasonable expectation test, which generally requires the issuer to spend the money for governmental purposes within three years of issuance.
  • Arbitrage rebate: Premium proceeds invested above the bond yield while waiting to be spent generate arbitrage that may need to be rebated to the federal government. This is a significant compliance issue for large premium issuances.
  • Use of proceeds: Premium proceeds must be used for the same governmental purposes as par proceeds. They cannot be diverted to operating expenses or non-bond-related uses.

These constraints place a hard upper limit on how much premium an issuer can responsibly capture. We address this in detail in Section VIII.

VI. THE MATHEMATICS OF PREMIUM
CROSS-REFERENCE

For the live, year-by-year math walk-through across all 30 maturities, see Tab 4 — PREMIUM MATH. For interactive sliders that move MMD ±200 bps and Spread ±50 bps in real time, see Tab 7 — LIVE SENSITIVITY.

The technical mechanics of bond premium can be derived from first principles. This section works through the core equations and provides numerical examples for clarity.

The Bond Pricing Equation

The price of a fixed-coupon bond with semi-annual payments is the present value of all future cash flows discounted at the market yield:

Price = Σ [C / (1+y)^t] + 100 / (1+y)^n

Where:

  • C = semi-annual coupon payment per $100 of par (for a 5% annual coupon, C = $2.50)
  • y = semi-annual yield (annual yield / 2)
  • n = number of semi-annual periods to maturity
  • t = each individual semi-annual period from 1 to n

This can be rewritten using the closed-form annuity formula:

Price = C × [1 − (1+y)^−n] / y + 100 / (1+y)^n

This is the equation used throughout the the Issuer Pricing Dashboard and in every professional bond pricing system. It tells you that the price of a bond is uniquely determined by three inputs — coupon, yield, and maturity — given the convention of semi-annual interest with 30/360 day count.

The Premium-Yield Sensitivity Relationship

How much does a bond's price change for a 1 basis point change in yield? This sensitivity is called the dollar duration or DV01 (dollar value of one basis point), and for a 5% coupon, 30-year, callable-at-10 muni bond, it is approximately $0.79 per $100 of par per basis point.

Stated differently: a 100 basis point shift in market yields produces approximately a $7.90 change in price per $100 of par on a long-maturity premium bond. This is why timing matters so much in the issuance window — a deal sized at $1 billion par moves by $7,900,000 in premium for every 1% movement in market rates.

Worked Example: The 5% Coupon Convention in Action

Consider a hypothetical 30-year municipal bond issued today with a 5% coupon. The market yield to call (10 years) is 4.27%. What is the bond's price?

InputValue
Par value$100.00
Coupon rate (annual)5.000%
Yield to call4.270%
Years to call10
Semi-annual coupon (C)$2.500
Semi-annual yield (y)0.02135
Number of periods (n)20
Computed price$105.880
Premium per $100 par$5.880

On a $50,000,000 par issue, this single maturity would generate $2,940,000 of premium. Across a 30-year level-debt-service issuance, similar arithmetic applied to each maturity produces the total deal premium.

The Sensitivity to Coupon Choice

Why a 5% coupon? Why not 4% or 6%? The choice is a balance among three forces:

  • Higher coupon = larger premium dollar amount = more proceeds to fund the project. But also higher annual debt service obligation.
  • Lower coupon = smaller premium = less cushion against the de minimis zone. But also lower annual debt service.
  • 5% has emerged as the convention because it produces a meaningful premium (typically 5–12% of par) on a 30-year bond at any reasonable rate environment, while keeping debt service requirements at a level most issuers can afford.
VII. WHEN THE PREMIUM IS RIGHT — THE GOLDILOCKS FRAMEWORK

An intentional premium is the right structural choice when it accomplishes one or more specific goals. The goals are, in rough order of how commonly they justify premium use:

Goal 1 — Cover Cost of Issuance Without Raising Par

This is the most common rationale and the one easiest to defend politically. A typical $50 million general obligation bond issuance carries cost of issuance (COI) of approximately $400,000 to $700,000. If the issuer needs to deliver a full $50 million to the project fund:

  • Without premium: issue $50,500,000 par to leave $50 million net for the project after COI. Voters' authorization is consumed at a higher rate.
  • With premium: issue $50,000,000 par at $101.40, generating $700,000 of premium that covers COI. Voters' authorization is consumed at exactly the par level approved.

The premium structure is more transparent to voters and avoids the appearance that issuance fees inflate authorization. Almost every Texas city using GO bonds today employs a small premium for this purpose.

Goal 2 — Fund Capitalized Interest During Construction

Long-construction projects (jails, hospitals, transit lines, large facilities) often cannot generate operating revenue or tax collections during their construction phase. To bridge this gap, issuers fund debt service from bond proceeds — capitalized interest, or "cap-i."

For the the Issuer $1 billion Series 20XX jail financing, with construction running through 2029, capitalized interest could easily run $200–400 million. Funding this entirely from premium reduces the need to issue additional par.

Goal 3 — Build a Debt Service Reserve Fund (DSRF)

Revenue bonds typically require a debt service reserve fund equal to one year of debt service. For a $1 billion deal with $65.8 million annual debt service, the DSRF would be approximately $65.8 million. Premium can fund this reserve without adding to par.

Goal 4 — Project Fund Supplement

In some cases, premium is used to supplement the project fund directly — increasing the dollars available for construction beyond what par alone would provide. This is acceptable when the project has clearly defined uses that exceed initial par estimates.

Goal 5 — All-In TIC Optimization

In some interest rate environments, premium structures produce a lower All-In True Interest Cost than par structures with otherwise identical economics, because of investor preferences and liquidity premiums. This is sometimes the determining factor in coupon choice.

The Goldilocks Range

For Texas municipal issuers in the 2025–2026 rate environment, the practical Goldilocks range for premium as a percentage of par is:

Premium % of ParAssessment
0–3%Low. Typical for short-duration issues, refundings, or rising-rate environments. Premium covers little beyond COI.
3–7%Standard zone. Most issuers comfortable here. Sufficient to cover COI plus modest capitalized interest or DSRF. Politically safe.
7–12%Aggressive but defensible. the Issuer's 6.65% sits at the top of the standard zone. At this level, the issuer should have explicit Sources & Uses documenting where premium goes (e.g., DSRF, capitalized interest, multi-year project fund).
12–18%High. Requires substantial justification. Typical only for very long-duration issues or very low-rate environments. Political pushback common.
18%+Very high. IRS arbitrage rebate concerns become acute. Voter authorization questions arise. Bond counsel typically requires extensive structural justification.

These ranges are not regulatory limits — they are practical guidelines based on observed market practice. An issuer with strong technical justification can defend premium outside these ranges, but should expect to do so explicitly.

VIII. WHEN THE PREMIUM IS TOO HIGH — FIVE PRACTICAL LIMITS

There is no statutory ceiling on premium. The IRS does not say "premium cannot exceed X% of par." Instead, there are five practical limits, and any one of them can render a premium "too high." All five should be evaluated for any deal contemplating premium above the standard 3–7% range.

Limit 1 — IRS Bond Proceeds Rules (The Hard Ceiling)

Under federal tax law, bond proceeds must be reasonably needed for the governmental purpose of the issue. The "reasonable expectation test" requires the issuer to spend approximately 85% of net sale proceeds within three years of issuance. Premium dollars count as proceeds.

If the issuer over-premium and ends up with cash that simply sits unspent, two problems emerge:

  • Arbitrage rebate liability: investments earning above the bond yield must be rebated to Treasury, which is administratively expensive.
  • In extreme cases, failure of the reasonable expectation test can jeopardize tax-exempt status, which would be catastrophic.

Rule of thumb: a premium that produces more proceeds than the project actually needs is too high — full stop.

Limit 2 — Voter Authorization (The Legal Ceiling)

Texas voters authorize a specific par amount when they approve a bond election. The legal question is whether issuance of premium dollars beyond the authorized par exceeds the authorization.

Most Texas bond counsel takes the position that premium is part of the consideration paid for the par bonds and therefore does not violate the authorization. However:

  • Some bond counsel will flag premium above 5–10% of par for explicit board discussion.
  • Politically, when a $200 million authorization delivers $230 million of cash to the issuer, the headline writes itself: "City Borrows More Than Voters Approved."
  • Some Texas cities have started including disclosure about expected premium in their bond election ballot language.

Rule of thumb: when premium exceeds 10% of par, the issuer should explicitly document the structural rationale and consider proactive disclosure to elected officials.

Limit 3 — Refunding Economics (The Strategic Ceiling)

Premium structures interact with refunding economics in ways that issuers don't always appreciate at the time of original issuance. The basic relationship:

  • A 5% coupon bond is more attractive to refund than a 3% coupon bond, because there is more interest cost to save in a lower-rate environment.
  • But the higher original coupon means the issuer has "pre-paid" value to investors via the original premium. That value is not recoverable through refunding.
  • Net effect: premium structures provide more refunding optionality but at a cost. The break-even refunding rate is higher than for par bonds.

Rule of thumb: an issuer who anticipates refunding within 5–10 years should think carefully about whether maximum premium today is the right choice.

Limit 4 — Political Optics (The Public Perception Ceiling)

Public perception matters in municipal finance — perhaps more than in corporate finance, because issuers are accountable to voters and elected officials. A deal with a $50 million premium on a $200 million issue ($250 million of total cash on a $200 million authorization) generates predictable headlines.

The 10–12% premium range is roughly where political optics start to push back. Above that, the issuer should expect questions in city council meetings, opinion pieces in local newspapers, and attention from watchdog groups.

Rule of thumb: premium above 10% of par requires explicit political planning — not just technical analysis.

Limit 5 — TIC vs All-In TIC Divergence (The Technical Ceiling)

True Interest Cost (TIC) is calculated based on the bond's stated yield to maturity. All-In TIC adds back issuance expenses and other costs. For most deals, TIC and All-In TIC are within 25–50 basis points of each other.

Very high premium structures can cause this gap to widen. When TIC and All-In TIC diverge by more than 75 basis points, it is usually a signal that the deal economics are being structurally distorted by premium engineering.

Rule of thumb: monitor the TIC vs All-In TIC gap. Above 75 bps divergence, reconsider the premium structure.

IX. THE REFUNDING TRADE-OFF PREMIUM CREATES

This deserves its own section because it is the most subtle and most often misunderstood aspect of premium structure decisions. Premium and refunding interact in three important ways.

1. Higher Coupons Increase Refunding Sensitivity

A bond with a 5% coupon is more refundable than a bond with a 3% coupon, because there is more interest cost to save in any rate environment. If rates fall to 3% from a 5% coupon, the issuer can refund and save 200 basis points. If rates fall to 3% from a 4% coupon, only 100 basis points of savings are available.

Mechanically, this means premium structures are "more callable" in an economic sense — they have more value to the issuer's right to call early.

2. The Premium Has Already "Paid" for Some Refunding Value

When an issuer captures $50 million of premium today, some of that premium represents the bondholder's compensation for accepting a callable bond at 5% coupon vs. a non-callable bond at the prevailing market yield. In other words: part of the premium is the call option premium that bondholders charge for bearing call risk.

If the issuer later refunds, they "use" the call option they paid for. They cannot also recover the call option premium.

3. The Net Refunding Math

In simplified form: if an issuer uses a premium structure today and then refunds in 10 years, the total economic outcome is the difference between:

  • Today's premium captured + future refunding savings (if any)
  • vs. what the issuer would have captured with a par-coupon structure today + future refunding savings (likely larger if rates fall).

Whether the premium structure or the par structure produces a better long-term outcome depends on the rate path. For rising-rate scenarios, premium structures tend to outperform. For falling-rate scenarios, par structures may outperform if the issuer fully exercises the refunding option.

The empirical evidence from the 2010–2020 falling-rate environment was mixed: most issuers who used premium structures and then refunded came out ahead, because the refunding savings exceeded the difference between the original premium structures and what par would have produced. But this was a function of the specific rate environment, not a universal rule.

X. WORKED EXAMPLE — MUNICIPAL SERIES 2029
CROSS-REFERENCE

For the live, all-30-maturity the Issuer premium math, see Tab 4 — PREMIUM MATH. To explore how the premium responds to MMD and spread shifts in real time, see Tab 7 — LIVE SENSITIVITY.

To make all of the above concrete, consider the proposed the Issuer $1,000,000,000 Series 20XX general capital project financing. The deal as structured by the underwriter (scale dated April 23, 2026):

ParameterValue
Total par amount$1,000,000,000
Coupon rate (all maturities)5.000%
MaturitiesFYE 2030–2059 (30 years)
Call structure10-year par call (FYE 2039)
Average yieldapproximately 3.83%
Total premium$66,512,112
Premium % of par6.6512%
Total proceeds$1,066,512,112
Total debt service$1,974,001,233
Average annual debt serviceapproximately $65,800,000
Premium DV01$789,881 per basis point

Goldilocks Assessment

The 6.65% premium ratio sits at the top of the standard zone, just below the aggressive-but-defensible threshold. This is appropriate for a deal of this size and complexity, given that:

  • Cost of Issuance for a $1 billion deal will run approximately $20–35 million.
  • Capitalized interest during a multi-year construction phase could absorb $200–400 million.
  • Project fund supplement is a reasonable use given the scale and risk inherent in major capital construction.

In other words: there are clear, defensible structural uses for the entire $66,512,112 of premium. The deal is not over-premium-engineered.

What Could Push the Deal Above the Goldilocks Range?

If at pricing the underwriter and county finance team end up at, say, 9–11% premium ($90,000,000–$110,000,000), that would be cause for explicit board discussion. The political optics question "why are we delivering $5.5 billion when voters approved $1 billion?" would deserve a direct, documented answer in the bond documents.

What Could Push the Deal Below the Goldilocks Range?

A deal that priced at 1–2% premium ($10,000,000–$20,000,000) might leave the Issuer structurally short of funds for one of the legitimate uses (DSRF, cap-i, project fund). The County's representative should evaluate whether the lower premium reflects market conditions (rates rose between scale date and pricing day) or aggressive yield negotiation that may have undercompensated investors.

XI. THE TREASURER'S PRE-PRICING DECISION TREE

The following is a practical decision framework for treasurers and finance directors evaluating premium structure on an upcoming deal. The questions should be answered explicitly, in writing, before the pricing call.

Question 1 — What Will the Premium Fund?

Document, line by line, where premium dollars will be deployed:

  • Cost of Issuance (typically 0.3–1.5% of par)
  • Capitalized Interest (varies by construction timeline)
  • Debt Service Reserve Fund (typically one year of debt service for revenue bonds)
  • Project Fund Supplement (variable, tied to project scope)
  • Other (e.g., cost overruns, contingency)

If the documented uses sum to less than the proposed premium, the premium is too high for this deal. Cut the coupon down or reduce the premium target.

Question 2 — What Is the Goldilocks Position?

Calculate premium as % of par. Compare against the standard zones:

  • 0–3% — investigate whether the deal captured enough premium for COI
  • 3–7% — standard zone; proceed with normal due diligence
  • 7–12% — aggressive but defensible; document Sources & Uses explicitly
  • 12–18% — high; require explicit board approval and rationale
  • 18%+ — very high; consult bond counsel on arbitrage and authorization issues

Question 3 — What Is the Refunding Outlook?

If the issuer expects to refund in 5–10 years (because current rates feel high relative to historical norms), the optimal premium is lower than if rates feel low and refunding is unlikely. Make this judgment explicitly.

Question 4 — What Is the Political Risk?

If the political environment is sensitive to bond authorization issues — recent contested elections, watchdog group attention, hostile media coverage — premium above 10% creates additional risk. Make the political assessment explicit.

Question 5 — Is the Underwriter's Benchmark Defensible?

Ask the underwriter to show the spreads to MMD, BVAL, ICE, and Tradeweb. If they only show MMD, ask why. If the spreads to BVAL imply a meaningfully higher premium than the spreads to MMD, the underwriter should explain which benchmark they believe represents fair value and why.

This is one of the most important pieces of leverage the treasurer has on pricing day. Underwriters often default to MMD because it is the historical industry standard, but the largest financial advisor in the country (PFM) has switched to BVAL as primary benchmark, and three free alternatives (BVAL, ICE, Tradeweb) sit on the MSRB's EMMA website. The treasurer is entitled to push back.

Question 6 — Is There Adequate Time to Walk Away?

If the negotiation feels rushed or one-sided, the treasurer should be willing to delay pricing by 24–48 hours. Most underwriters will accommodate this if pushed. Pricing under time pressure favors the underwriter, not the issuer.

XII. COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS — ANSWERED PLAINLY

"A premium bond means the issuer pays back more than they borrowed."

False.

The issuer borrows the par amount and pays back the par amount at maturity. The premium represents the bondholder's pre-payment for the right to receive coupon income above the market rate — a transaction between buyer and seller at issuance. The issuer's obligation is the par amount plus the contractual coupon interest.

"Premium bonds lose money for investors when the bond matures."

False.

As discussed in Section V, the IRS requires investors to amortize bond premium over the life of the bond, reducing tax basis to par. The investor does not realize a capital loss at maturity because the basis has been adjusted. The premium is the cost of acquiring tax-exempt income, fully accounted for over the holding period.

"Premium structures hide the true cost of borrowing."

Partly true, but misleading.

True Interest Cost (TIC) and All-In True Interest Cost both account for premium amortization in their calculations. TIC is yield to maturity; All-In TIC adds COI and other expenses. Both are standard disclosures in bond documents. A treasurer who reads the official statement carefully sees the true cost. The misconception arises when public discussion focuses on coupon rate (which is high) rather than yield to maturity (which is the actual cost of borrowing).

"5% coupons are required by law."

False.

The 5% coupon convention is market practice, not regulation. An issuer can choose any coupon rate. The reasons for the 5% standard are entirely related to investor preferences (de minimis tax cushion) and market liquidity (5% bonds trade more easily). For specific transactions — bank-qualified placements, retail-targeted serials, certain refundings — different coupons are common.

"Premium issuance violates voter authorization."

Generally false in Texas.

The dominant view among Texas bond counsel is that premium proceeds are part of the consideration paid for the par bonds and do not constitute additional borrowing beyond the authorization. Voters authorize the issuer to issue par bonds; the price at which those bonds are sold (which determines premium) is a market-driven outcome, not a separate authorization question. However, this position is not unanimous, and some bond counsel will raise concerns when premium exceeds 10% of par.

"A higher premium today is always better for the issuer."

False, and dangerously so.

Higher premium captured today reduces refunding flexibility tomorrow, can run afoul of IRS arbitrage rules, creates political optics issues, and may produce a worse long-term economic outcome if rates fall. The right premium is the smallest premium that funds the legitimate structural uses identified in the Sources & Uses analysis. More is not better.

XIII. GLOSSARY
TermDefinition
AccretionThe increase in a discount bond's value over time as it approaches par at maturity. For tax-exempt bonds, this is taxed as interest income (capital gain if below de minimis threshold; ordinary income if above).
All-In True Interest Cost (All-In TIC)True Interest Cost adjusted to include cost of issuance and other expenses. The closest measure of the issuer's true economic cost of borrowing.
Amortization (of premium)The IRS-required allocation of bond premium over the life of the bond, reducing the investor's tax basis from purchase price to par at maturity.
Arbitrage RebateThe federal requirement that issuers of tax-exempt bonds rebate to the U.S. Treasury any earnings on bond proceeds that exceed the bond yield. Premium proceeds are subject to this requirement.
BVAL (Bloomberg Valuation)Bloomberg's algorithmic AAA municipal yield curve, available free on EMMA. Updated hourly during market hours.
Build America Bonds (BABs)Federally-subsidized taxable municipal bonds issued under ARRA in 2009–2010. Roughly $181 billion issued. Drove premium-coupon practice into the muni market.
Capitalized Interest (Cap-I)Interest payments on bonds that are funded from bond proceeds during a project's construction phase rather than from operating revenues.
Coupon RateThe stated annual interest rate of a bond, expressed as a percentage of par. Determines the dollar amount of interest paid each period.
Cost of Issuance (COI)Expenses related to the issuance of bonds: bond counsel, financial advisor, underwriter discount, rating agency fees, printing, etc. Typically 0.3% to 1.5% of par.
Debt Service Reserve Fund (DSRF)A reserve account, typically equal to one year of debt service, held to provide a cushion against revenue shortfalls. Common for revenue bonds; rare for general obligation bonds.
De Minimis Rule (IRC §1278)IRS rule that taxes accretion on bonds purchased at a discount of more than 0.25% per remaining year of life as ordinary income, rather than long-term capital gains.
Dollar Duration / DV01The dollar change in a bond's price for a 1 basis point change in yield. For a $1 billion 30-year deal, approximately $789,881 per basis point.
EMMAElectronic Municipal Market Access. The MSRB's free public website hosting trade data, official statements, and yield curves for the U.S. municipal market.
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange)Provider of a rules-based, transaction-driven AAA municipal yield curve. Free on EMMA.
MMD (Municipal Market Data)Refinitiv's daily 3 PM Eastern AAA municipal yield curve. The historical industry standard. Subscription-only.
Original Issue Premium (OIP)Premium received by the issuer at the time of bond sale. Treated as bond proceeds for IRS purposes.
Par BondA bond priced at face value ($100). Coupon rate equals market yield. Standard pre-2008; rare in modern investment-grade muni issuance.
Premium BondA bond priced above face value. Coupon rate exceeds market yield.
Reasonable Expectation TestIRS requirement that an issuer expect to spend approximately 85% of net sale proceeds within three years of issuance, for tax-exempt status.
TIC (True Interest Cost)The discount rate at which the present value of debt service equals the bond proceeds. Equivalent to yield to maturity for premium structures.
TradewebProvider of a machine-learning-based AAA municipal yield curve using both pre-trade quote data and post-trade MSRB data. Free on EMMA.
Yield to Call (YTC)The yield assuming the bond is called at the first call date rather than held to maturity. For premium bonds priced at a 5% coupon with 10-year call, YTC is the standard pricing reference.
Yield to Maturity (YTM)The yield assuming the bond is held to its stated maturity date. For non-callable bonds (or bonds where call is not anticipated), YTM is the standard pricing reference.
XIV. SOURCES & FURTHER READING

Industry Publications

  • PIMCO. Valuing Callable Municipal Bonds. Educational paper on the 5% coupon convention and the relationship between callable structures and the MMD curve. (Updated 2024.)
  • PIMCO. Understanding Premium Municipal Bonds. Investor-focused explainer on why premium bonds are common in the muni market.
  • AllianceBernstein. Premium Municipal Bonds: Myth vs. Fact. Addresses common misconceptions about premium bond capital loss treatment.
  • Thornburg Investment Management. The Municipal Market: High Coupons & High Premiums. Discussion of how the U.S. tax code structurally favors premium muni issuance.
  • Breckinridge Capital Advisors. Premium Bonds 101. Explains de minimis rule mechanics and impact on premium bond demand.
  • Fidelity Investments. Municipal Market Focus: New Issue Premium Coupon Bonds. Practitioner-oriented overview.

Regulatory and Tax Authority

  • Internal Revenue Code §171 (premium amortization for tax-exempt bonds)
  • Internal Revenue Code §1278 (de minimis rule for discount bonds)
  • Treasury Regulations §1.148 (arbitrage rebate)
  • MSRB Rule G-32 (disclosure of pricing information)

Industry Press

  • The Bond Buyer — daily coverage of the U.S. municipal market, including coupon and pricing trends. Particularly: PFM transition to BVAL coverage (December 2023).
  • MSRB Press Releases on EMMA enhancements (BVAL hourly updates, addition of ICE and Tradeweb curves).

Internal CityBase.Net References

  • the Issuer $1,000,000,000 Series 20XX Bond Pricing Teaching Dashboard — this dashboard.
  • McKinney 2025A/2025B/Refunding pricing analyses — detailed worked examples of premium calculations under different coupon structures.

— End of Note —
Prepared by CityBase.Net • Lewis F. McLain Jr. • April 2026

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BOND COMPS — REAL DEAL CASE LIBRARY

PURPOSE

A growing library of real bond issuances with computed economics (premium, TIC, average life) for cross-deal comparison. Each comp uses the same calculation engine as the rest of the dashboard, so numbers are apples-to-apples within the limits of the inputs.

New deals are added as they price. The dashboard auto-discovers each comp on next load.

COMPARISON MATRIX  ·  click to expand / collapse

All loaded comps side-by-side. Negotiated deals tinted lighter blue, competitive in darker sky blue.

Issuer Series Sale Date Sale Type Total Par Avg Life TIC Premium $ Premium % Goldilocks Zone Insurance Underwriter

BIDDER PERFORMANCE MATRIX — WHO BID HOW AGGRESSIVELY ON WHAT

HOW TO READ THIS

Across every competitive deal in the library: bidders down the rows, issuers across the columns. Each cell shows that bidder's TIC variance vs the deal's winner, in basis points.

Issuer takeaway: a row that's mostly green-or-amber tells you a chronically aggressive bidder — worth ensuring they're invited to your next competitive sale. A row that's mostly red is a polite participant who isn't actually competing for the paper. The summary stats on the right rank bidders by their average competitiveness and win rate.

Sort bidders by:

Tip: drag either scrollbar — the top one is mirrored from the bottom so you can navigate the full deal list without dropping to the table's bottom edge.

NEGOTIATED vs COMPETITIVE AGGREGATE

Average metrics across all negotiated vs all competitive deals in the library. Apples-to-apples is imperfect (deals vary by issuer credit, size, structure), but at scale this surfaces the directional cost differential we discussed in Tab 9.

MetricNegotiated (avg)Competitive (avg)Differential

INDIVIDUAL DEAL DETAIL

Click a deal below to see its full schedule, computed metrics, and notes. Click again to collapse.

REFUNDINGS — CANDIDATE ANALYSIS LIBRARY

PURPOSE

For any outstanding callable bond issue, evaluate whether refunding makes economic sense at today's rates. Each candidate gets a green ✓ (refund) or red × (not yet) verdict based on the PV savings threshold (default 3% of refunded par per GFOA convention). The verdict reflects what's actionable today — not what would be theoretically possible if tax law allowed it.

WHY REFUNDING ECONOMICS LOOK COUNTER-INTUITIVE TODAY

A naive refunding analysis subtracts new yield from old coupon, multiplies by par and remaining life, and shows attractive savings. The actual capturable savings depend on three things that are rarely obvious:

1. Current vs. advance refunding.

2. The TCJA 2018 landmine.

Tax-exempt-to-tax-exempt advance refunding was prohibited in December 2017. Since 2018, advance-prohibited deals have only two paths:

3. The negative arbitrage problem.

Advance refunding requires an escrow account holding Treasuries (or SLGS — State and Local Government Series) until call date. The escrow earns the Treasury rate; the issuer pays the new bond yield. If new yield > escrow yield, the differential is negative arbitrage — real cash cost during the escrow period. SLGS at exactly the bond yield avoids the IRS rebate rule (the issuer can't earn more than the bond yield from federally subsidized debt without rebating the excess), but you also can't earn more than the bond yield even if market Treasuries pay more — that excess gets rebated to Treasury.

The practical result for a deal years from its call date:

For advance-prohibited deals, the dashboard now shows both scenarios in each deal panel: Scenario A (tax-exempt at today's rates, illustrative only) and Scenario B (taxable advance today, with negative arbitrage subtracted — actionable). The matrix verdict reflects the actionable scenario.

RECENT TEXAS REFUNDING COMPS — PUBLIC DISCLOSURES

What other Texas issuers are actually achieving on recent refundings. Use these as a sanity check for the candidate analysis below: if your candidate's PV savings % is in the ballpark of these comps, the case is consistent with what the market is delivering today; if it's well below, your candidate may be too far from a useful refunding window.

CONTEXT FOR THE NUMBERS

Post-TCJA (2018), most refundings are current (within 90 days of call), taxable advance (broader spread, smaller savings), or tender offers (issuer buys back high-coupon bonds at premium-to-market and re-issues at lower rate). Headline savings vary widely by structure:

Issuer Deal / Series Year Refunded Par PV Savings $ PV Savings % Structure / Notes
NTTA (North Texas Tollway) First & Second Tier Revenue Refunding, Series 2024A/2024B 2024 $1.342B $166.6M ~12.4% Tax-exempt current refunding plus tender of high-coupon legacy debt; longer maturities also restructured.
NTTA First & Second Tier Revenue Refunding, Series 2025A/2025B (~$637M total) 2025 $510.5M + $126.4M $41M est. ~6.4% Smaller refunding vs. 2024 deal; targeted maturities, less tender content.
University of Texas System Refunding component of 2025 issuance 2025 n/a n/a >20% Top-rated AAA credit; "in excess of 20%" PV DS savings reported — structure not disclosed publicly. Likely a high-coupon tender or scoop; not a typical comp.
DFW International Airport Joint Revenue Refunding & Improvement Bonds Sep 2025 $1.967B n/a ~4-7% est. Locked in 4- and 7-year initial-period savings; full PV % not disclosed in public coverage.
Frisco ISD Unlimited Tax Refunding Bonds, Series 2025A 2025 n/a n/a 3-5% typical PSF-backed; school district refunding bonds must show PV savings to the district to qualify under TEA Bond Guarantee Program rules.
NTTA (historical) $850M refunding (2021) 2021 $850M refunded $191.5M ~22.5% Pre-TCJA-era economics: tax-exempt-to-tax-exempt advance refunding, plus tender. Not replicable today as advance refunding.
NTTA (cumulative since 2013) Multiple refunding tranches 2013-2025 $7B refunded $3.2B+ ~46% cumulative Cumulative across many deals over a decade; bulk of savings was captured pre-TCJA.

Sources: Bond Buyer coverage of NTTA Series 2024A/2024B and 2025A/2025B issuances, University of Texas Board of Regents debt program disclosures, DFW International Airport Series 2025 issuance disclosures, and Texas Bond Review Board annual reports. Estimates flagged where the official PV % was not disclosed in public sources.

TEXAS BOND REVIEW BOARD — STATE OF TEXAS DEBT ISSUANCE GUIDELINES

WHY THIS IS HERE

The Texas Bond Review Board (BRB) was established in 1987 (Government Code Chapter 1231) and reviews/approves all bonds, lease-purchases, and installment sales over $250,000 issued by State agencies and universities. The BRB's State of Texas Debt Issuance Guidelines are not binding on local governments (cities, counties, school districts), but they reflect the institutional best-practices the State applies to its own debt and are widely treated as the gold-standard playbook for any Texas issuer. The 3% / 2% PV-savings refunding thresholds the dashboard uses come directly from Policy 14 below.

Summary below is based on publicly available content from the Texas BRB website. For the verbatim, authoritative version, see brb.texas.gov/state-of-texasdebt-issuance-guidelines/ and the underlying statute at Government Code Chapter 1231.

OBJECTIVES & SCOPE

The Guidelines establish conditions for the use of debt and create procedures and policies that: (1) minimize the State's debt service and issuance costs, (2) retain the highest possible credit rating, and (3) maintain full and complete financial disclosure and reporting. The policies apply to all debt issued by the State, including leases and any other forms of indebtedness supported by State general revenues. The Bond Review Board adopts debt issuance policies to guide issuers of state securities and to ensure that state debt is prudently managed; the policies must be sufficiently flexible to allow the State and issuers of state securities to respond to changing economic conditions.

POLICY 1 — CREDIT RATINGS

The State of Texas seeks to maintain the highest possible credit ratings for all categories of short- and long-term General Obligation debt that can be achieved without compromising delivery of basic services and programs and achievement of adopted policy objectives. The State recognizes that external economic, natural, or other events may, from time to time, affect the creditworthiness of its debt. Nevertheless, the Executive and Legislative branches of State Government are committed to ensuring that actions within their control are prudent and necessary to maintain the creditworthiness objectives of the State.

POLICY 2 — FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE

The State of Texas is committed to full and complete financial disclosure, and to cooperating fully with rating agencies, institutional and individual investors, State departments and agencies, other levels of government, and the general public to share clear, comprehensible, and accurate financial information. The State of Texas is committed to meeting secondary disclosure requirements on a timely and comprehensive basis.

POLICY 3 — DEBT ISSUANCE AUTHORIZATION

All debt issued by the State must be authorized by either the Texas Constitution or the Texas Legislature. State issuers shall ensure that debt is issued in compliance with all applicable State and federal laws, the issuer's authorizing statutes, and any pre-existing bond covenants. Notice of intent to issue debt must be filed with the Bond Review Board, and BRB approval is required for issuances over $250,000 by State agencies and universities (per Government Code Chapter 1231).

POLICY 4 — TERM AND MATURITY

State issuers should structure debt so that the final maturity does not exceed the useful life of the assets being financed. Maturity structures should support intergenerational equity (taxpayers benefiting from the asset should bear its cost) and should consider market conditions, debt service capacity, and the asset's expected life. Long-dated maturities require additional review to ensure they are economically and operationally appropriate.

POLICY 5 — METHOD OF SALE (NEGOTIATED vs COMPETITIVE)

Competitive sale bids should be awarded on a True Interest Cost (TIC) basis, providing other bidding requirements are satisfied. In instances where the issuer deems all bids received unsatisfactory, it may subsequently sell through a negotiated sale in accordance with its standard procedures.

Negotiated sales should be considered when:

POLICY 6 — UNDERWRITER SELECTION

For all negotiated sales, underwriters should be required to demonstrate sufficient capitalization and experience related to the debt issuance and should be able to show minority and women participation within their firms. Issuers are required to make a good faith effort to achieve 33% participation by HUB (Historically Underutilized Business) firms in the underwriting and issuance of debt; issuers should also encourage underwriters to make similar good faith efforts including HUB participation in syndicates for competitive sales. State issuers shall make all final determinations of selection for legal and other services in accordance with Chapter 1201 Texas Government Code, following an independent review of responses to RFPs or RFQs, which should be reviewed by at least the issuer's financial professional charged with debt oversight and/or the agency's financial advisor.

POLICY 7 — FINANCIAL ADVISORS

State issuers should retain qualified financial advisors to provide independent advice on the structuring, pricing, and execution of debt transactions. The financial advisor's role is distinct from and independent of the underwriter, to ensure the issuer receives advice free of conflicts of interest. Financial advisors should be selected through a competitive process based on qualifications, experience, and fee structure.

POLICY 8 — BOND COUNSEL & LEGAL COUNSEL

Bond counsel and other legal counsel should be selected through an independent review of responses to requests for proposals or qualifications, in accordance with Chapter 1201 Texas Government Code. Bond counsel must have demonstrated expertise in municipal finance and federal tax law applicable to tax-exempt securities. The Texas Office of the Attorney General reviews and approves all State debt issuances.

POLICY 9 — CREDIT ENHANCEMENT

Bond insurance, letters of credit, surety policies, and other credit enhancements should be considered when the cost of the enhancement is expected to be less than the present value of interest savings achieved through the rating uplift. Issuers should obtain competitive proposals for enhancement when feasible and document the cost-benefit analysis supporting the decision.

POLICY 10 — LEASE-PURCHASE FINANCING

Lease-Without-Ownership-Purchase (LWOP) transactions utilizing Certificates of Participation (COPs) and Private Interests (PIs) often require higher interest rates and are considerably more complex to structure and document with higher legal costs than lease revenue bond issues. To protect the State's credit ratings, such transactions would require expensive credit enhancement. Consequently, unless a unique situation justifies the issuance of COPs or PIs in an LWOP transaction, the Bond Review Board does not consider such transactions to be the most cost-effective means of financing and recommends issuers utilize lease revenue bond financings as an alternative.

POLICY 11 — VARIABLE RATE DEBT

State issuers may issue securities that pay a rate of interest that varies according to a pre-determined formula or results from periodic remarketing of the securities, consistent with State law and covenants of pre-existing bonds. Variable rate debt should be converted to fixed rate debt as necessary to maintain the creditworthiness objectives of the State, to meet particular needs of a financing program, or to lock in low fixed interest rates when advantageous. An issuer should take into account the amount of time that variable rate debt has been outstanding when determining the final maturity of the fixed rate debt. Issuers should adopt a Variable Rate Debt Policy specifying maximum exposure (e.g., as a percent of total debt) and risk management procedures.

POLICY 12 — DERIVATIVES & INTEREST RATE SWAPS

State issuers should consider the use of derivative products when products meet the specific needs of a financing program or provide a demonstrated economic benefit to the State that outweighs the costs and risks of the transaction; appropriate public finance professionals, including financial advisors and legal counsel, should be retained to ensure that the State receives fair market value for the transaction. To insure standardization, better pricing, and greater transparency, swaps should be documented using the standard forms developed by the International Swap and Derivatives Association, Inc. ("ISDA"). Issuers should adopt a written Interest Rate Management Agreement (IRMA) policy specifying counterparty rating thresholds, collateralization, termination provisions, and ongoing monitoring procedures.

POLICY 13 — CONDUIT FINANCING

Conduit issuance — where the State or a State authority issues debt on behalf of a private or other non-State borrower — should only be undertaken when there is a clear public purpose and the credit of the State is not at risk. Debt issuances for some component corporations of governmental entities such as housing finance corporations, industrial development corporations, and other conduit entities are not reported to the BRB. Conduit financings should be structured so that bondholders look solely to the conduit borrower for repayment, and the issuer's name should not be construed as creating any general obligation of the State.

POLICY 14 — REFUNDINGS  « THIS IS THE POLICY THE DASHBOARD ENFORCES

Periodic reviews of all outstanding debt should be undertaken by State issuers to determine refunding opportunities. Refunding should be considered (within federal tax law constraints) if and when there is a net economic benefit of the refunding, or the refunding is necessary to eliminate restrictive covenants essential to operations and management.

Threshold tests:

TCJA caveat (added by dashboard): The 3% advance refunding threshold was written before the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 prohibited tax-exempt-to-tax-exempt advance refunding (effective Dec 2017). Today, the 3% test applies de facto only to taxable advance refunding and forward delivery structures; the 2% test still governs current refunding within 90 days of call.

POLICY 15 — BOND ANTICIPATION NOTES (BANs)

Use of bond anticipation notes (BANs) will be undertaken only if the transaction costs plus interest on the debt are less than the cost of internal financing, or available cash is insufficient to meet working capital requirements. BANs should be retired with the proceeds of the planned long-term financing within a reasonable period (typically the construction period of the underlying project).

POLICY 16 — COMMERCIAL PAPER

Tax-exempt commercial paper (CP) programs may be used as a flexible funding source for capital projects when the State expects to ultimately convert the short-term obligation into long-term debt. CP programs require liquidity support (typically a bank line of credit or self-liquidity from a highly rated issuer), counterparty risk management, and ongoing dealer arrangements. CP outstanding amounts should be tracked and reported in the same manner as long-term debt.

POLICY 17 — CAPITAL APPRECIATION BONDS (CABs)

Capital Appreciation Bonds (CABs), where principal and accrued interest are paid in a single payment at maturity rather than over time, should be used sparingly. CABs typically carry higher all-in costs than current-interest bonds and shift larger debt service burdens to future taxpayers. Issuers should document the specific operational or budgetary justification for any CAB issuance and disclose the total repayment-to-principal ratio.

POLICY 18 — INVESTMENT OF BOND PROCEEDS

Bond proceeds should be invested as part of an investment schedule that reflects the anticipated need to draw down funds for project purposes. Through careful matching of investment maturity dates, a State issuer can maximize its return while ensuring the necessary cash flow. Investments will be consistent with those authorized by existing State law and by the issuer's investment policies. Arbitrage rebate compliance must be tracked throughout the life of the investment to avoid IRS penalties.

POLICY 19 — CAPITAL MARKETS COMMUNICATION & INVESTOR RELATIONS

State issuers should maintain ongoing communication with rating agencies, bond counsel, financial advisors, underwriters, and the investing public. Regular investor presentations, updated continuing disclosure, and prompt responses to material event filings (per SEC Rule 15c2-12) help maintain market access at the lowest practicable cost. Issuers should designate a primary public finance contact and maintain an investor-relations section on the issuer's website.

POLICY 20 — REPORTING & ONGOING REVIEW

State issuers shall report all debt issuances to the BRB in accordance with Government Code Chapter 1231. Annual reports cover total outstanding debt, debt service requirements, refunding savings achieved, and program-level commentary. The BRB compiles aggregate State and local government debt data and publishes annual reports on the State of Texas Debt program. Issuers should periodically review their own internal debt policies for consistency with these Guidelines and update as needed.

The above is a structured summary of the BRB Guidelines drawn from publicly available BRB and Texas Government Code content. For the verbatim, current text, refer to the BRB website. Local-government issuers (cities, counties, school districts) are not bound by these State guidelines but should consider them as a reference framework, alongside their own adopted debt policies and the GFOA Best Practices.

CANDIDATE MATRIX

One row per outstanding deal under analysis. Green ✓ = PV savings clears threshold; red × = does not. Click a deal name in the section below the matrix to see the full schedule and refunding math.

Verdict Issuer Series Call Date Days to Call Mode Refundable Par Old Coupon Assumed New Yield PV Savings $ PV Savings % Threshold

INDIVIDUAL DEAL ANALYSIS

Click a deal below to see its full bond schedule, refunding math walk-through, candidate verdict, and TCJA constraint check. Click again to collapse.

VISIBLE SUPPLY — THE BOND BUYER 30-DAY ISSUANCE FORECAST

PURPOSE

The Bond Buyer's Visible Supply is a daily reading of the par amount of municipal bonds expected to be issued over the next 30 days. It's a leading indicator of supply pressure on muni yields.

How to read it: high visible supply (e.g., $18B+) = issuers are competing for buyer dollars, which tends to widen yields. Low supply (under $10B) = scarcity premium, which tightens yields. Watch the directional change rather than absolute level — a 30% week-over-week jump is more informative than the daily print itself.

WHY THIS MATTERS FOR PRICING DAY

When the treasurer is preparing for a competitive or negotiated sale, visible supply on pricing day is one of the leading indicators of how aggressive bidders or the syndicate will be:

A treasurer evaluating competitive bid quality (Tab 9) should layer this metric onto their pre-bid baseline. A 12 bp dispersion when supply is heavy is much more impressive than the same 12 bps when supply is light.

VISIBLE SUPPLY OVER TIME

SUMMARY STATISTICS

DATA TABLE

Daily Bond Buyer 30-day visible-supply readings, most recent first.

Date All Bonds ($000) Negotiated ($000) Competitive ($000) Neg % Comp %

BOND HISTORY

A DECADE OF MUNICIPAL BOND FINANCE

PURPOSE

Ten years of long-term municipal bond issuance, broken out by month, purpose, tax status, structure, sale type, security, credit enhancement, and issuer type. Useful for benchmarking the current calendar against history, sizing trend swings (e.g., the 2019-2020 taxable advance refunding boom or the post-2022 refunding collapse), and explaining context to elected officials.

Source: LSEG / The Bond Buyer "A Decade of Municipal Bond Finance" (data available April 1, 2026). All dollar amounts in millions. Figures are issues maturing in 1.09 yrs+; private placements and forward sales included; short-term notes < 1.088 yrs and remarketings excluded. 2026 figures are YTD through Q1 only (Jan–Mar).

HEADLINE NUMBERS

ANNUAL VOLUME

Total long-term issuance per year. 2026 bar represents Q1 only.

MEANINGFUL RATIOS — THE STORY BEHIND THE NUMBERS

HOW TO READ THIS TABLE

Raw dollar volumes can obscure the real shifts in the muni market. The ratios below normalize across the decade so the structural moves jump out:

  • Avg Issue Size — total / # of issues. Rising trend reflects bigger deals (mega-deals in transportation, education, state authorities) and fewer small issuers.
  • Refunding % — refunding $ as a share of total. Spikes when rates fall (2019, 2020) and collapses after the 2022 hike cycle (TCJA had already killed tax-exempt advance refundings in 2018).
  • Refunding / New Money — same idea, expressed as a ratio. Above 0.5 = a refunding-driven year. Below 0.2 = new-money dominant.
  • Taxable % — share of taxable issuance. Spike in 2019-2020 = the brief taxable advance refunding window when low taxable rates made the math work.
  • Negotiated % — mega-deals, novel structures, and weak-credit issuers gravitate to negotiated; commodity GO paper goes competitive.
  • GO Share — GO / (GO + Revenue). Revenue bonds dominate (transportation, utilities, healthcare) but GO swings with school bond elections and city CIPs.
  • Bond Insurance % — insured-portion par as % of total. Rising trend post-2017 as monolines (BAM, AGM, AG) have rebuilt market share.
  • Education Share — education's share of par. Consistent #1 sector, typically ~25-30% of the calendar.
  • YoY Change — year-over-year total. Helps spot inflection points (2018 post-TCJA cliff, 2024-2025 surge).

MONTHLY VOLUMES

BY PURPOSE

Education and Transportation typically lead. General Purpose covers GO-style multi-purpose issues that don't fit a single sector.

BY TAX STATUS

BY USE OF PROCEEDS

BY SALE TYPE

BY SECURITY (REVENUE vs GO)

BY COUPON STRUCTURE

BY CREDIT ENHANCEMENT

BY ISSUER TYPE

Source: LSEG / The Bond Buyer, A Decade of Municipal Bond Finance, data available April 1, 2026. All dollar amounts in millions. Bank Qualified, Bond Insurance, Letters of Credit, etc. are subsets of total issuance and will not sum to 100%; they reflect only the insured/enhanced portion.

STRESS RATIOS — TEXAS LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEBT BURDEN

PURPOSE

Stress ratios quantify how much debt a local government is carrying relative to the resources available to repay it. Three benchmarks dominate the rating-agency and underwriter conversation:

For an issuer (treasurer, finance director, elected official): these ratios drive the credit rating, underwriter spread, and ultimately the borrowing cost. Knowing where you sit relative to peers is the first step in setting a realistic baseline before pricing day.

STRESS TIER DEFINITIONS

Tiers below align with rating-agency rules of thumb (Moody's / S&P / Fitch) and GFOA peer benchmarking. Numbers below "elevated" are typical for AAA Texas issuers; "high" and "severe" are flags for additional credit review.

Ratio LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE
GO Debt / Taxable Value< 2%2-4%4-6%6-10%> 10%
GO Debt Service / Taxable Value< 3%3-6%6-10%10-15%> 15%
GO Debt Per Capita< $1,000$1,000-3,000$3,000-6,000$6,000-10,000> $10,000

SUMMARY BY GOVERNMENT TYPE

All Texas cities, counties, and independent school districts that have reported GO debt outstanding to the Texas Bond Review Board, latest fiscal year per jurisdiction.

Type Jurisdictions Total Principal Outstanding Total Interest Outstanding Total Debt Service Outstanding Avg Debt/Value Avg DS/Value Avg Debt/Capita

STRESS-TIER DISTRIBUTION — HOW MANY JURISDICTIONS LAND IN EACH TIER

Counts of jurisdictions per stress tier per ratio. Use this to gauge how typical a jurisdiction's burden is relative to peers. ISDs typically run higher debt loads than cities and counties because school construction is the largest local capital obligation.

Type Ratio LOW MODERATE ELEVATED HIGH SEVERE Unknown

AAA-TIER ANCHOR SPOTLIGHT (ILLUSTRATIVE)

TOP-25 MOST STRESSED — BY RATIO

# Type Jurisdiction Year Population Taxable Value Total Tax Rate Principal Outstanding Debt Service Outstanding Debt/Value DS/Value Debt/Capita Tier

METRIC PIVOT — ENTITIES × YEARS WITH CAGR & TREND

Pick a metric. Each entity gets one row showing its value every year (2007–2025), the compounded annual growth rate over that span, and a small sparkline of the trajectory with dots at each data point. Click any column header to sort — including any individual year column. Use type filter and search to narrow the universe.

Metric:

CAGR computed as (last/first)1/n − 1, where n = years between the first and last reported value (gaps within are tolerated). Sparkline dots show every reported year; missing years skip without breaking the line.

SEARCH ALL JURISDICTIONS

ABOUT THE "POPULATION" FIELD FOR ISDs

The Texas Bond Review Board's Population field is sourced from the city or county where the district sits, NOT student enrollment (ADA). For Cities and Counties, this is the actual jurisdiction population. For ISDs, debt-per-capita using this number reflects the area's resident headcount, which can be misleading for credit comparisons since ISD debt is repaid by district property owners (often a different footprint than the city). When student-enrollment data is added to the dataset, the dashboard can compute a more meaningful debt/student ratio for school districts.

Type any jurisdiction name to filter. Click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). Comparison shows the latest fiscal year reported to the Texas Bond Review Board.

Type Jurisdiction Year Population Taxable Value Tax Rate Total Principal Out. DS Out. Debt/Value DS/Value Debt/Capita

Source: Texas Bond Review Board Local Government Debt Outstanding query (downloaded 2026-04-29). One row per jurisdiction representing the latest fiscal year reported (typically FY 2024 or FY 2025). The original CSV covers 34,020 rows across fiscal years 2007-2025; this dashboard shows the most recent snapshot per jurisdiction. Stress tiers are dashboard-applied conventions consistent with rating-agency rules of thumb; not a Texas BRB-published classification.

LARGE PROJECT EXAMPLE — FOUR-ISSUE PRICING (ILLUSTRATIVE)

PURPOSE — ILLUSTRATIVE TEACHING EXAMPLE

A worked teaching example built from a Sample FA preliminary "Tax Rate Impact" study dated 4/23/2026: an $8.5B capital-improvement program issued in four series spread over five years. The teaching question: using the 4/23/2026 sample scale (5% coupons + dashboard yields), what premium and TIC would each issue actually deliver? The dashboard recalculates each issue independently and shows the computed result alongside the FA's preliminary numbers. Issuer name, FA name, par sizes, and dates are illustrative only — the methodology and reconciliation walk-throughs apply to any large multi-issue program.

Issuer perspective: if computed premium is HIGHER than the FA's preliminary, the actual deal will deliver MORE proceeds at par than forecast — good news. If computed TIC is LOWER than preliminary, the actual borrowing cost is BELOW forecast — better budget flexibility. The size of the gap tells you how conservative the FA's forward-rate assumptions were vs today's market.

SAMPLE FA PRELIMINARY SUMMARY (FROM THE STUDY)

Tax Notes Series 2027 CO Series 2029 CO Series 2030 CO Series 2031 Total
Par Amount $1,500,000,000 $2,500,000,000 $2,500,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $8,500,000,000
Premium $76,082,917 $160,675,837 $160,675,837 $128,540,658 $525,975,249
Total Funding $1,576,082,917 $2,660,675,837 $2,660,675,837 $2,128,540,658 $9,025,975,249
Cost of Issuance ($) $3,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $17,000,000
   COI per $1,000 par $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 $2.00
Underwriter's Discount ($) $6,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $34,000,000
   UD per $1,000 par $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00 $4.00
TOTAL FEES per $1,000 par $6.00 $6.00 $6.00 $6.00 $6.00
FA Preliminary TIC % 4.041% 4.506% 4.506% 4.506%
FEE BENCHMARKS — ARE THE FA'S NUMBERS REASONABLE?

The Sample FA is using flat $2.00 COI + $4.00 UD = $6.00 total per $1,000 par across all four issues. These hold even though par sizes range $1.5B-$2.5B, which is unusual: per-$1k fees normally compress on larger deals due to scale. Industry rules of thumb for benchmarking:

ComponentTight (large/frequent issuer)TypicalWide (small/complex)Sample FA Figure
Cost of Issuance$1.00–$2.00 / $1k$2.00–$3.50 / $1k$4.00–$6.00+ / $1k$2.00 / $1k ✓
Underwriter's Discount$2.50–$4.00 / $1k$4.00–$5.50 / $1k$6.00–$8.00+ / $1k$4.00 / $1k ✓
Combined$3.50–$6.00 / $1k$6.00–$9.00 / $1k$10+ / $1k$6.00 / $1k ✓

Issuer takeaway on fees: the per-$1k figures are at the tight end of the typical range for AAA Texas issuers — they look reasonable. For AAA frequent-issuer deals at $2B+ scale, COI sometimes prints at $1.25-$1.75/$1k and UD at $3.00-$3.50/$1k, so the FA's flat $2/$4 leaves a little room to negotiate on the $2.5B issues. The bigger issue is not the fees but the assumed rate scales — if the FA revised the curve between iterations without flagging it, the dollar impact of that silent revision dwarfs anything you could capture on fee negotiation.

QUESTIONS TO PUT TO YOUR FA IN YOUR CLARIFICATION CALL
  1. What rate scale did you assume for each of the four issues? The TICs (4.041% / 4.506%) imply yields ~150 bps wider than today's 4/23/2026 sample scale at every tenor. Is that a forward curve? A stress scenario? An older snapshot?
  2. Have you revised the rate scales between this version and any prior version you delivered? If yes, please send a redline showing what changed and when.
  3. For each issue, what is the assumed coupon and yield by maturity? Today's 4/23/2026 scale uses 5% coupons throughout for AAA Texas, with yields 2.5%-4.7% across the curve. Are you using a different coupon assumption?
  4. Are the COI and UD figures (flat $2/$4 per $1k) firm or placeholders? On AAA frequent-issuer deals at $2B+ scale, fees often compress to $1.50-$3.00 COI and $3.00-$3.50 UD per $1k.
  5. What is the assumed call structure on each issue? 10-year par call standard? Or different on the Tax Notes (the "2-year call option" line implies something custom)?
  6. What sensitivity have you run on the I&S tax-rate impact? A 100 bps move in the assumed curve changes tax-rate impact by approximately the same percent — the governing body and the public deserve to see that range, not a point estimate.

DASHBOARD RECALCULATION — USING THE 4/23/2026 SAMPLE SCALE

Each issue priced independently with 5.00% coupons applied to every maturity, yields drawn directly from the dashboard's MATURITIES array (the 4/23/2026 sample scale). Maturities ≤ 10 years from the issue's settlement are priced-to-maturity; maturities beyond 10 years are priced-to-call (10-year par call). Tax Notes 2027 has a 2-year call option from its dated date but for pricing-on-4/23/2026 purposes the dashboard prices each maturity to its own date (no early-call assumption since the analysis is anchored at today).

CONSOLIDATED DEBT SERVICE SCHEDULE — TAX BASE + ALL ISSUES + I&S TAX RATE EVOLUTION

HOW TO READ THIS

Every fiscal year (2025-2063) gets one row. Reading left-to-right shows the cumulative tax rate impact as each new issue is layered onto existing debt:

Cross-check the FA with this schedule. The FA's preliminary report typically has the same 14-column structure; their numbers and yours should agree within ~1% on each year's DS. Any larger gap means they're using different assumptions (different coupon, different interest convention, different maturity schedule, different collection rate, or a different rate scale producing different premium and therefore different par sizing).

PER-ISSUE DETAIL — MATURITY SCHEDULES & PER-BOND PRICING

TECHNICAL NOTE — ICMA vs Finance 8.901 Pricing Conventions

Why our calculation matches the FA within $114K but not exactly — the $0.0046% per-par residual explained

1. Background: Three Standard Conventions for Long-First-Coupon Pricing

When a bond is issued with a "long first coupon period" — meaning the dated date is earlier than 6 months before the first coupon payment — the bond pricing engine must decide how to discount that fractional first period. CO Series 2029 illustrates this exactly: dated 5/18/2029, first coupon 2/15/2030. The first interest period is 267 days (8 months 27 days) at 30/360 day count, longer than the regular 180-day half-year. Three industry-standard conventions exist:

ConventionStub Period DiscountFull Periods After StubCommon Use
SIA-old (Securities Industry Association, pre-1985) Fractional-power compound: (1+y/2)-(DSC/E) Standard semi-annual compound Older US Treasury / agency pricing
ICMA (International Capital Market Association, current standard) Simple-interest: 1 / (1 + (y/2) × DSC/E) Standard semi-annual compound Modern muni and corporate pricing; current SIA / SIFMA standard
SIA-new (post-1985) Equal Bond Period Method (EBPM): each coupon period has equal-length compounding adjustment Standard semi-annual compound, with EBPM adjustment in the partial period Post-1985 SEC-mandated yield disclosures

DSC = days from settle to first coupon. E = days in regular coupon period (180 for semi-annual under 30/360 day count).

2. What the FA Used: "Finance 8.901" — almost certainly DBC by SS&C Technologies

The footer of every page of the Sample FA's CO 2029 preliminary pricing report reads "(Finance 8.901 [Sample Issuer]:260423-2029)". "Finance 8.901" is the version stamp produced by the bond-pricing engine that generated the report. The version-number format and product-name pattern are strongly consistent with DBC, the dominant municipal-bond structuring software in the US market — though without a DBC release-notes document confirming the specific "8.901" version, this identification is an inference rather than a verified fact.

About DBC. DBC is a municipal-finance modeling platform produced by SS&C Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SSNC, Windsor, CT). The product line includes DBC Finance (deal sizing and structuring), DBC Debt Manager (post-issuance debt portfolio management), and related modules. According to industry sources and SS&C's own materials, DBC is used to structure approximately 90% of US negotiated municipal bond underwriting annually and around 97% of new issuance overall. Customers include the top 35 investment banks, top 15 financial advisors, plus issuers and bond counsel. If a major US muni underwriter or financial advisor is preparing a sizing/structuring report, the odds heavily favor DBC having generated it.

FA confirmation (illustrative, captured 4/30/2026): the FA's analyst stated explicitly: "Yes, we run our numbers using DBC and it's set up to calculate based on a 30/360 day count throughout. All of the bonds with call dates are priced to the call date." This confirms (a) DBC is the pricing engine, (b) 30/360 day count throughout, and (c) all callable bonds priced to the call date. All three conventions match the dashboard's V3 (ICMA) implementation exactly.

Yet the $114K residual remains. With the FA confirming 30/360 throughout and priced-to-call as universal convention — both of which the dashboard already does — the unexplained ~$114K (0.0046% of par) on CO Series 2029 cannot come from a methodology difference. It must come from DBC's internal numerical precision or implementation choices in the long-first-period discount factor that aren't captured in either SIA-old or ICMA textbook formulas. Without DBC source-code documentation, this last 0.0046% cannot be replicated by an external model. For the deal economics it is below presentation precision.

By systematically testing each of the three standard conventions against the FA's published per-maturity prices for CO Series 2029, the dashboard's reverse-engineering produces the following total premium results on the $2.5B issue:

ConventionTotal PremiumGap to FADirection
SIA-old (compound stub)$170,044,897−$271,789too low
ICMA (simple-interest stub) — dashboard's choice$170,430,619+$113,933too high (closest)
FA reported (Finance 8.901)$170,316,686$0

Conclusion: Finance 8.901 produces a premium that sits between the two textbook conventions, closer to ICMA than to SIA-old. The empirically-determined "effective" discount factor for the long-first stub on the 2055 maturity is 0.96618, while pure ICMA gives 0.96640 and pure SIA-old gives 0.96629. DBC's algorithm produces more discounting than either textbook formula. Without DBC Finance's published source documentation, the dashboard cannot replicate the last 0.0046% of par exactly.

2A. Why Did ICMA Create Its Own Model?

ICMA (International Capital Market Association, originally ISMA — International Securities Market Association) codified its bond pricing standard as Rule 803 in 1991. Five reasons drove the new standard:

  1. The Eurobond market needed a unified convention. Pre-1990s, every region had its own bond conventions — SIA in the US, separate UK gilts, separate Japanese conventions, separate Swiss/German bond conventions. International (Eurobond) market participants needed one standard that worked across borders.
  2. SIA-old was too US-centric. The fractional-power formula (1+y/2)-(DSC/E) assumed semi-annual coupons and 30/360 day count — both narrow assumptions that didn't fit many European bonds.
  3. Simple-interest stub is more economically intuitive. During the partial first period, interest actually accrues as a simple-interest accrual (cash builds up linearly, not compounded fractionally). ICMA's 1 / (1 + (y/2) × DSC/E) for the stub mirrors how the cash flow actually behaves rather than mathematically extending compound interest into a fractional space.
  4. Day-count flexibility. ICMA's formula works equivalently with ACT/ACT, ACT/365, or 30/360 — letting users plug in whatever day count their market uses. SIA-old was tightly coupled to 30/360.
  5. Convergence to ICMA as the global muni standard. Over the 1990s and 2000s, even the US muni market adopted ICMA-style conventions because they handled edge cases (long first, short first, irregular periods) more cleanly than SIA-old. ICMA is now effectively the modern SIFMA-blessed standard for muni and corporate bond pricing.

3. The Variance Direction — Who Benefits?

The FA's per-maturity prices come in systematically slightly LOWER than the dashboard's pure ICMA calculation (e.g., 102.491 vs 102.498 on the 2055 maturity). Lower price per $100 par means:

Therefore, the convention difference favors the BUYER by approximately $114K on a $2.5B deal, equivalent to $0.0455 per $1,000 par (less than half a basis point). This is below presentation precision and well within normal pricing-day market variance (5-10 bps of curve movement on actual pricing day equates to $5-10M of premium variance — two orders of magnitude larger than this convention residual).

Two reasonable interpretations of the buyer-favoring direction:

  1. Conservative FA practice. Financial advisors generally prefer to under-promise and over-deliver on premium estimates. Conservative pricing engines build in a small "buyer cushion" so that actual deal pricing on the day delivers a positive surprise to the issuer rather than a negative one.
  2. Vendor-specific algorithmic choice. DBC Finance may simply implement the long-first-period discount factor with a slight systematic bias relative to textbook ICMA, not deliberately conservative but consistently in the buyer-favoring direction across all premium-coupon callable bonds.

4. DBC Version History — What Changed and When

What we know now (4/30/2026): the FA confirmed (illustrative) that they use DBC and it is set up for 30/360 day count with priced-to-call as the universal convention for callable bonds. What remains undocumented:

For authoritative answers, the next step would be to contact DBC's support team at SS&C Technologies (via the SS&C DBC product page) or to ask the FA's analyst to share the relevant DBC release notes. The dashboard treats this as an open question rather than asserting unverified version-history detail. Practically, this question is now low-stakes: with the convention reconciled and the residual confirmed to be 0.0046% of par, the version history would be of academic interest only.

5. Practical Bottom Line

For this large multi-issue example, the convention choice is not material to the deal's economics:

For internal financial-advisor reconciliation purposes, the dashboard uses the ICMA convention — the closer of the two standard textbook formulas and the modern industry default for muni and corporate bond pricing.

Source: an illustrative Sample FA preliminary "Tax Rate Impact Analysis", Scenario 1 dated 4/23/2026, plus a deal-level Bond Pricing report dated 4/30/2026 (Finance 8.901 reference). Preliminary, subject to change. Issuer name, FA name, par sizes, and dated dates are illustrative only — the methodology, reconciliation walk-through, and convention discussion apply to any large multi-issue capital program. Maturity schedule for CO 2029 verified line-by-line against the FA's preliminary pricing report; CO 2030 and CO 2031 maturity schedules are approximated by shifting and scaling the CO 2029 shape. Tax Notes 2027 schedule is exact from the source. Absolute par amounts are exact across all four issues.